$ 70 oil could be right around the corner


Oil markets have always been circulated, and are now even more advanced with advanced electronic merchandise, more consideration (which often affects wider oil price rods) and more representatives, a & # 39; including the US oil revival, which now reaches more than 11 million barrels per day. In addition to the uncertainty of the cocktail, there are also several geo-economic and economic factors, including US-China's ongoing trade conditions, which are the policy of the US Army Reserve, and wars in Syria, Yemen and other places, making it harder to go to; Estimates the future oil prices guide.

This trend has been over the past half a month as market pundits have looked (usually spectacular) as the rise of global oil prices will run anniversary in October only to go up to 40 per cent to date. Prices for global oil signals, Brent's simple income that were otherwise converted to London to trade in the range from 80 to mid-early October, The US oil co-operation, raw non-commercial trips that were otherwise converted to NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) in the middle of $ 70 -range, a consistent price for US shadow oil representatives, and about $ 25per barrel over the average level of oil products for skipper makers.

But, among the fragile economic statements and the geo-geological developments are difficult, a group of bankers are increasingly optimistic over the future oil price prejudice. On Friday, Bloomberg said that many of the largest banks in the world say they are becoming a revival in oil prices the following year as fear of declining decline.

According to Bloomberg's survey of oil checks, Brent routines $ 70 in a barrel in 2019, almost a third is not higher than its price on Thursday. Michael Cohen, head of energy and goods research at Barclays Plc in New York, said "we could even see something similar to the V-shaped revival of the following year, on two very important situations. One, the reduction in OPEC export means a reduction in lists. And two, we do not see another fall in macro-economic situations. "

Bloomberg's report, despite a dark vision for the recent global economy among long-term trade disputes between the US and China, and how the US Army Reserve is struggling to play. Confirmation of cash policy, most respondents do not; see a real downturn; year. The average evaluation of 24 oil analysts in the Bloomberg survey shows that Brent's raw income is just $ 70 barrel in 2019. It was price on Thursday amounted to $ 53.50 although the average to date in 2018 was approximately $ 72. At the same time, the mid-forecast for WTI is $ 61.13. WTI Futures sold at around $ 45.27 Monday. Associated: Low Oil Priority Could Cripple Texas Job Growth

Michael Tran, resource manager of RBC Capital Markets LLC, said prices are coming close to it. bottom, and that global supply and demand "" should come to a good balance next year. "Bloomberg said that there was no serious analysis expected global oil consumption was to grow at the rate of speed seen in recent years, driven by economies that come to the crops such as China.

Showing the changing trade war?

However, though the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg have been accredited to ongoing trade accidents between the US and China, it is likely that a new trade agreement will not be reached by the date of 2 March between the two sides, a global oil demand will be Stronger, hard-term economic growth, slowly driven in Chinese manufacturing and exports. Because the US and China are the two largest economies in the world, an ongoing trade struggle has already been hit global supply chains, especially in Asia. A number of manufacturing companies have already put China on greener land, and # 39; including establishing a Vietnam tiger shop in southeastern Asia.

Japan, the world's third largest economist and main reminder of both oil and natural discharge (LNG), for its already experiencing a spat of economic spat between USA and China. In September, the Nikkei Asian Review in Tokyo said that at least 60 per cent of Japanese prime companies expecting salaries to be injured by their & trade war. If Washington and Beijing were not able to reach a formal fire by 2 March, almost every Japanese company could be 60%, even though the Japanese GDP would also be a # 39 ; impact on how to do; oil growth in the country.

There is a long trade war between the US and China also affect other OECD members. Last month, its expanded economies group reduced its global growth repression from 3.7 per cent to 3.5 per cent in 2019 and 2020. But this growth strategy could be read if the USA is Collecting existing prices of $ 200 of Chinese materials up to 25% longer and new duties would have a value of $ 267 of Chinese exports; deeper the problem.

Le Tim Daiss for Oilprice.com

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