Are the United States going to a new economic downturn?


No installments are unpleasant. They are likely to include large job loss, stagnant income and a broad problem. And when this decline occurs in the world's largest economy, it is a major illness for your business partners.

Investigators are increasingly worried that there is a decline in the US; breed.

Indeed, they, as economists, can be wrong.

But Is there a right way to predict depressions?

Analysis of US government bond markets can be one of the most detailed methods.

Produce cuar

Survey by the US central bank The linking markets expected the five US resuscitation. from 1955

These bands, called Finance Division Bonds., provided as a way of borrowing government for financial costs.

They come with different diversity and their. offer a level of return, which is paid in regular installments.

This level is a fixed proportion of its final value and attachment. As the bonds can be arranged freely, their prices will change.

If there is a high demand, price increases and the level of reimbursement of the market price, or your result (result), reduced.

On the other hand, lower cost and increase in performance.

Healthy rhythm

What affects the price of the links?

It is attractive compared to other investments (If the product is high and, therefore, its low price, customers may be able to attract) and also what is being done; Expectations of future emotions of motions.

What do you need to do this by declining?

The control overhead of analysts over the range of standards, up to 30 years, will want to be able to go to; design product bend.

The lowest yield, below the expected level of interest and, as a result, it is expected that the economy will be worse.

Attendees will appear to have high yields with long-term quality, to support the keepers of those securities for inflation and longer term ownership.

Result championship in the magazine. "Width = height =" 624 "= = 351

The product bend is a reliable indication of a decline.

In general, when the vision for the activity is extended at a healthy pace, the product bend will bend, show levels of interest in moving up.

But if the bite has a "back" product, which usually results in a 10-year band yield less than a 2-year band, e It is a warning about economic health.

But how good are these coms to be & # 39; bring down a dip?

Amazing sign

The markets linked reliable signs of expectation on the number of declines that the United States had collapsed since 1955.

But in the mid 1960s, the recurrence of the Treasuries product loop continued to slow it into an activity rather than completely crashing.

So it is not uncertain, but it may be the most reliable sign.

What the product bite does not tell us when the US economy can go back.

Over the last 60 years, more or less, dizziness occurred between 9 and 24 months after converting the product collapse.

At the moment, unemployment rate is just 3.7%, long and is the economy; growing.

But A converter may not be long.

In addition, the strategies that are generated from product cromes can be self-fulfillment.

Just as consumers respond to warnings about sad times by going to & # 39; controlling expenditure, banks tend to be more aware of loans when they realize that the product bend is returned.

There is no smaller collection of mortgages, car funding, credit cards or corporate loans that mean less spending to stimulate growth.

The warning about the link markets must be badly taken, not just by the markets.

The Capital Economics consultation warns it 30% of abilities in the US include decline within 18 months: just over time for the next time to go to the next election headquarters.

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