2019 coming near will be difficult for the dollar



Find out how many weeks or months can be, it should be clear that the division can not be; At present it is a financial market forever. In other words, a quiet and dangerous country is higher than 300/350 points – the highest level at which to invest in international markets – they are not fully compatible. That is, to be able to think that time can be & # 39; going like this, with the dollar returning to be changing of illegal behavior while it's impossible to do it; New debts but not only have renewable debt appraisals, but something harder: terrible to each other There was a danger in a yesterday's country at a level of 724 points. Therefore, there is a difference between the current level and the extent to which debt can be renewed for more than six months. This factor, which shows that important features have been developed, but, on the other hand, faster than later, eliminating the money market. It is not possible to think that the months of November did, with news releases in the newspapers far from the financial differences with rural risk at similar levels.

What happens next? What happens if your case is still in & # 39; Find out what their effects are; Do you always have these two changes: a dollar and a dangerous country? The most likely is, how the first month of 2019 will be & # 39; going, and a Money Monetary dollar are used for payment, not only does the country's level of danger go? strive to reach levels that are consistent with the # 39; The ability to credit credit, but their own high level will start to & # 39; creating market market inefficiency. And the weakness of the dollar is rapidly translating on the one hand that rates of rates can not be reduced well, even though the Medium Bank has withdrawn the "platform", and on the other hand Other that can not be reduced in a very strong way, the level of inflation. It can be said that the low levels between 2% and 3% per month could be maintained for many months, which are now designed for the month of December. It is worth saying that we are now entering a calm time that would not only be a going on and not to live.

And this is very reasonable if one includes the fact that the government would Eliminate – if the tax collection does not operate the Treasury operating deficit trick in 2019, but it would still be the case; suffer from a large quasi-fiscal deficit of the BCRA, which would increase the financial deficit of the Department of Finance that will increase, rather than fall, at 7.5% of GDP. With the increase in deprivation and non-voluntary funding in the markets, it is very likely that it will not be possible to settle at low low levels and a stable and stable dollar. It's even less if one includes the markets to go to; Reduce the body's dollar that is Chritine Lagarde's guidance that will be used in the 2019 election.

The outside may not give relief to the Argentine economy. It seems that we are still not aware that the long-lived and longest bull markets have international markets: nearly 10 years of raising and raising Wall Street and rates are almost nonsense. That situation starts to & # 39; disappearing in 2018, when it began to grow rising and its stopping up with sections on Wall Street and its; showing clear signs that they reached top. It is possible that the levels of risk not only in Argentina, but also in many other countries can record how they are; Introducing this factor that is still far from being discharged as a whole. A number of countries in 2019 are likely to have no access to international credit markets. And because Argentina is the biggest risk in terms of the words that are; At present, we will go to 2019 and there will be a great deal of uncertainty and there will be more danger. Now, it does not appear that the authorities that give more money, and # 39; putting all the platforms, roofs, rules, suitability, aims and aims that are capable of replacing the archive together as soon as possible and one of the factors that we have said we have placed a focus on a market the dollar. It seems that he would think the process began to lower levels of interest and their ability to; Holding the dollar in a check already something "bought", as a bare fox, and not a lion who was currently thinking of roars and food on the machine.

This multiplication of measures that make a larger and more complex money market is designed for a long time and other issues. You could almost say that for another country. It does not even include that, from 2020, Arctic will invite the markets to buy a dollar in the financial market to pay and not pay. Ending in a world that is becoming increasingly difficult. On the other hand, there are financial rules that are desirable to establish a compulsory neurotic, which is a tremendous way to create a rule after long-term control; Does the market bring benefits for a couple of weeks.

At the same time, we are in December: a month that is usually the most unprofitable of the year, and # 39; month with the largest financial needs and distribution and current bills in pesos with companies. It may not be ignored, but the product's sources to instability to return to move, are now weak. When it is clear in all its powers it is clear that Exit does not pay for a fiscal deficit of 7.5% of its GDP in a world not only does it & # 39; funding, but also stops being a source on a broad financial bonanza.

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