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Inflation: the repository market kept 47.5% for 2018, but reduced expectations for the next 12 months



Expected expectations of inflation for the next 12 months would reach 29% in general, 3.1 percentage points less than in & # 39; previous measurement.

This is the third installment of continuous inflation centers measured by REM and its opening; The Central Bank will offer the level of money policy and Leliq will give the floor 60%, as I did; expected last year. Keeper of the entity, Guido Sandleris.

Indeed, today BCRA paid 60.003% in the daily auction.

"Failure expects the level of inflation to the October survey in fact all the time it was inspected," said the official report.

The REM was made between the 27th and the 29th of November, where a repayment of 53 participants (2 less than the previous trip) was considered, with 32 local councilors and research centers, 14 financial units in Argentina and 7 foreign analyzes.

During its measurement at the end of November, the levels in which there were; Expected from inflation for the next 12 months, that is, up to the same month of 2019, 29% by average and 28.6% by median.

This is 3.1 percentage points less than in October according to their average and 2 percentage points, by the center.

"This is the third decrease of this indicator according to the average (in October fell 0.8 p.p. and in September 0.5 p.p.) and the second one by the middle ((in October fell 1.3 p.p.)," said the report.

Although the annual REM annual repayment for 2018 remained at 47.5%, and decreased in all subsequent periods: 27.5% for 2019 (-0.3 pp) and 19.2% for 2020 (-0.4) pp).

For December, the REM showed an inflation of 2.7% (-0.1 pp for the October survey), for January to stay at 2.5%, but 0.2 per cent decreased for February to 2.3%, and 0.1 for March at 2.3%.

Accordingly, the December repayment of the annual annual average of the financial policy level (LELIQ) was reduced by 500 points, which ranged from 65% in the previous survey to 60% today.

Media Bank Risk is now 163,633 million in League Bills (Leliq) to 7 days at an average level of 60.003%, the lowest rate since the start of the day-to-day offers scheme on 1 October with a 75% yield.

The REM projections fell due to a designated exchange rate. Analysts expect $ 39 per dollar (-0.6% in respect of the previous REM) in December 2018 and reaching it in December 2019 at $ 48.5 per dollar (-0.8% in respect of the previous survey ).

Regarding economic activity, the suspect of the forecast for 2018 is expected to fall by 2.4%, and for 2019 it is expected to reduce 1.2%, which is 0.2 percent less than the October measure

At the same time, the visibility of a secondary school output is fair for 2019 according to the published publications; and the National Budget Bill 2019.


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