For most of the analysts in a & # 39; local market, the end of the financial year must deal with three unidentified. That is: if the Central Bank reduces a level mark of 60% interest per annum, if the financial entity meets the cash spread statements that have been set up in the & IMF program and inflation fell on this month.
"I think that the first position with the Survey of Survey Survey (REM) results must be reviewed by BCRA tomorrow." A & # 39; Most analysts estimate that this study is a & # 39; showing a decrease in the CPI that is expected for the second consecutive month of the next 12 months and if inflation is down, the level of interest will be further reduced, "he said Group: the leader of Investment in stock market Norberto Sosa.
It should be noted that the BCRA has adopted a new financial policy scheme with strict control over financial decisions starting in October, and has promised not to increase its level of value; Cash Foundation (MB) to June 2019, compared to the September average.
According to a report prepared by the BCRA in November, the monthly average of the $ 1,256 billion billion Fundamental Fund, $ 14.5 billion is lower than the target and $ 4 billion above the average for the month of October. The report shows that the WB compared to October was explained by the increase of $ 15 billion in unpaid bank resources, which was negotiated with the reduction in the distribution of funds of $ 11 billion.
The report sets out, in order to meet its goal, the BCRA notices to; selling daily short-term bills, the Leliq, who have a marketplace with a level of energy certification.
Yesterday, for example, Medieval sold $ 160,231 million in Leliq with an average yield in low to 60,278% annually. The highest number given in the letters was seven days 60.49 per cent. The current level of reference is the lowest level since this grazing instrument was first used. independent for banks on 1 October. In similar work this Thursday, the authority gave finance up to an average cut-up rate of 60.753% and a highest rate of 61.026%.
In this regard, Sosa explains that "in a more consistent context within an exchange market, the Center should be in December with the policy strategy that has been implemented for two months to balance the dollar and maintain the level of interest. Although the economist emphasizes the need to pay attention to the December seasonal leap for a fair and fair Christmas payment, The BCRA does not consider the complex situation as the last week because the economy does not need too much pesos
Rodrigo Álvarez, Analytica, believes that "the impact of the cash crisis begins to reduce his / her influence on inflation, in accordance with certificates officially noted that his & her; November, closing less than 3%, against 6.5% in September and 5.4% in October, even though it is still in & # 39; Maintaining high levels and the most important part of what the Central level of interest will see and if it is achieved in December the objective for a tremendous expansion was agreed with the IMF. "
According to official numbers, the rates for this month started in the # 39; low band at $ 36,139 and at $ 46,769 in the senior group, but ended this year between $ 37,117 and $ 48,034, since the financial authority has given the IMF to establish a zone of failure to grow 3% per month between October and December, almost in line with the inflation (but October data), to avoid new verification at the exchange rate.
The BCRA's intention is to be able to agree that the "slower zone" of the slowest speed in the first quarter of 2019, because it has been a major reduction in inflation and for the last two months, the Government expects an increase in average prices of 3% per month, and closing in November below this level, although it would be up in December. Also, unlike the cell phone; At present, the change will not be made every month, but it will be quarterly.
"One of the key elements for the October exchange rate was to use Leliq to remove extra pesos from attractive levels of interest, which reached a roof of almost 73%, but has fallen more than 10 points now and about 60% now (on Friday they closed at 60.75%, "said Sosa.
For December it is expected that the Leliq rate falls below this level, as long as There is no optional ripping that prevents it. In any case, one of the key elements is to see how this policy follows the number the Central Bank will have; closing for the development of the interventions.