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The five keys to help explain why the dollar was hurt at the beginning of the summer – 01/12/2019



The beginning of the world situation in 2019 is quite different from those that ended in 2018. It looks calm and comfortable; point the price of the dollar was going on the floor on an interconnection zone; Central Bank. Tomorrow the low band starts at $ 37.45. Friday closed at $ 37.08 (the majority is taken). In another order, the banners showed a revitalization that allowed them to reproduce rural risk of almost 130 basic points (from 829 to 703) from his upgrades in late December.

Economics will see reasons for the price of the dollar to continue on the ground floor without interventions. Anyway for the next few months. Here are some of the reasons behind the current situation.

Improving the Outlook for Change

In December, two studies on the University of Di Tella showed data that supports Cambiemos. One, recorded an increase in the overall Government evaluation. At least at least 21.8% in October last year, one point rises in November. And in December he climbed nine points. The other result is the UTDT in the items that appear in the Early Client Index. "Do you believe that the economic situation will be within 12 months …?" Is there a & # 39; question. 45% think about it. In November, that proportion was 38% and in October 36%. According to the results of the Elypsis survey – carried out in the last week of December, a prestigious image of its President was increased nationally. On 30 December, Macri's figure stood at 32%, and a 2-point increase over the previous week.

Rates in the US in a stop method

During the last minute of the last meeting of the Feachdail Reserve – Central Bank of the United States -. In that meeting in December the entity had decided to raise interest rates. The summaries revealed that many bank directors make it clear that there are reasons for believing that a reduction in the US economy will reduce vibrant illnesses, which is lower in marketplace ; emerging, financial flexibility, trade war with China and stimulating lower money incentives. The high levels recorded this year may be suspended. The president of the deer Jeremy Powell, at The Economic Club in Washington, said this week he will not be in a hurry. If the US does not increase the rates at the same level as well as in 2018 – last year, it made four hours and there are eight from the end of 2015 – there will be no capital boost placed in the assets of the Department of Finance and It will benefit from emerging economies and, finally, Argentina. Trump opposed the defense policy of the Reserve's defense and continued to continue. raising the rates. It will cost the deficit and its plans to extend a more demand.

There is a dollar

According to a census with the Quantum Finance company, at the end of the year the Finance Department will come with its more money of US $ 1,100 million. But before that break of dollars, the Government will have ensured that the money that may be necessary to pay for the services and repayment of debt. He will get wells for $ 37,841 million, $ 22,741 million will be donated by the Monetary Fund through grants under the agreement standing by side -m bi, half, to arrive at the end of the & # 39; March. "It's an impossible challenge", it's a & # 39; Opinion on Quantum on the performance of its 2019-20 financial obligations.

The Bolsonaro impact

"By realizing the real help of the exchange rate with Argentina to develop", says Juan Carlos Barboza, economist of Banco Itaú in Buenos Aires offices. "But, for commercial purposes, it will promote Brazil's growth more than it does with a pheasant link." Argentina produces around 20% of its products and services to Brazil, but three quarters of that share are vehicles. This means that two-dimensional business transactions are not likely to change the value of money than the Brazilian bid. This year's GDP Brazil will grow 2.5% according to the Itaú Bank estimates.

Beard sees favorable prospects on the Brazilian economy, "especially a more demand for its resources"And this is the cause of the most real. The real two-dimensional exchange rate that was estimated by the BCRA for Argentina expanded to date in January compared to December, largely due to the appreciation On Friday, the dollar closed at 3.71 reais. In terms of bonds, the demand for Brazilian securities has also risen. The 10-year Brazilian treasury stock has risen from 12% in September to 9.2% on Friday. Bovespa's index broke the barrier of 90,000 points.

Increasing the decline and growth rates

In the Central Bank he & assuming that high levels impede activity, although the fall in GDP before the current plan has been implemented. They recognize that both traders and individuals have taken their turn off the accelerator when it comes to money that wants foreign currency. It is likely that the collapse of collapse is not around – about 70% of GDP – around the corner. With its parliaments launched and a 40% -45% service increase, Federico Furiase of Eco Go, estimated that it would be close to 30% annually in December this year, "the price of the dollar" I should not move over 20% -25%. "That would give $ 47.5. The salary is still against inflation." The need for regulatory development needs to increase the level of exchange; program of money that is responsible border boundaries to accelerate the reduction of rates and increase their credit"EcoGo would spend 2% this year by EcoGo.

This week, the Middle Bank published data on loan changes. The December cash report confirms its & # 39; movement: "All credit lines are registered, even those that aim to fund the family spending, who had been making a generous or strange contribution to the growth of total loans in pesos, saying the work of the BCRA, funds of credit cards were circulated with a fall of 12.7% in real terms in & # 39 ; year. This happens in the collapse context of retail sales in retail centers, according to the latest available data – in October, a year-on-year fall was 18.7%. On the other hand, personal loans ended an 18% reduction per annum ".


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