OPEC: cutting or cutting (HSH Nordbank AG) Materials of the day



Hamburg (www.aktiencheck.de) – Oil prices have fallen sharply in the six weeks that disappeared as rock, according to the analysis of HSH Nordbank AG.

From a 87 year-old dollar / barrel rise in the US in early October, these would have dropped by around 30% to the current level of AS / DC grinders. The reasons for this, as well as basic ones, were also the reasons related to the situation that would have continued on this sale on the oil market.

For OPEC countries, the dark clouds on the oil market are now taking a & # 39; question whether the product should be cut again. In an environment where a & # 39; increasing its expectations and supply statements, this decision would be reasonable, because OPEC's relationship does not; Following a "market share strategy" but the type of strategy that will keep global oil records to try; de facto, OPEC is a cargo manager for a global oil market. At the end of October, analysts at HSH Nordbank AG did not believe that the conditions would be on the # The oil market could speak due to OPEC cuts and that a strategy based on this will be pay. However, analysis is now very difficult to evaluate; Increase measures to increase: (1) lower prices of the lower trade range in the recent range ($ 63 to $ 86 / barrel) should have Core OPEC and Russia guidance to re -operative; (2) after the beginning of its production between May and October with OPEC and Russia, virtually no full use has been achieved; (3) HSH Nordbank AG analysis would now exceed 1.5 million barrel / day in a & # 39; the first quarter of 2019, if OPEC did not preclude the production material in advance. This revaluation of the oil market balance has resulted in recent production levels over expectations in Libya, Venezuela and the USA.

For the OPEC, the economic incentives are obvious to have food cuts in the coming year. Income loss is due to a reduced level of output lower than the loss due to rising prices in oil stock light – as has been significantly recognized by its & Recent price has dropped an oil market of almost 30%. The growth predictive may be a bit lower with HSH Nordbank AG analysts and the higher supply of non-OPEC representatives to be depreciated by the OPEC reformed production level. The cuts were not enough fast but only for sharp decline in the demand to avoid a special increase in stockings.

Increased increase in prices rose (2015 to the end of the first season of 2017) together with the promotion lists, especially above its & # 39; a standard of five years average. The same thing applies to what was being done; reaching a too low level (as inspected in May / June 2018). Therefore, OPEC is responsible for keeping records close to the normal levels as long as possible to & # 39; The maintenance of very low earning prices, which is likely to have a positive impact on the asset valuation based in the balance of producer records.

For an OPEC meeting on 6 December in Vienna, analysts at HSH Nordbank AG would now expect cuts in production dimensions in order 1 to 1.4 million barrels / days. This would be a fundamental event for the oil market that had to go back to a barrel between $ 70 and $ 80. Accordingly, analysts would still be "sensible". (11.22.2018 / AC / a / m)


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