Studies and employment: the reasons why the middle bank took the floor from INE figures

Employment and salary ended as the most important economic indicators in 2018. That, since GDP growth and investment were more than 4% and 6%, respectively, work and remuneration remained constant. But yesterday, they took another move, hand in hand with a beautiful argument, although it was obvious, between the Central Bank (BC) and the National Statistics Institute (INE).

The BC, in a unprecedented way, decided to take a special section into the labor market in the Financial Policy Report for December, which he published yesterday. And she was the first time with a scann. The reason? The agency decided, in particular, that the unemployment, salary, and creation of the INE's work are not reliable.

The document states that "when the impact of the migration stream is important, the earnings growth recorded since 2016 has been more than the statement produced by the surveys The up-to-date survey of the salary charts is calculated by the INE ".

Experts in Central Bank say that the numbers presented so far have been posted. show a job market "not just entirely totally, but to represent bare moves". This is a & # 39; means that many relevant data, such as differences in behavior of different groups or changes in the production of streams, are present in public analysis or debate ".

Question of procedures?

The voting bills and the immigrant factor will return to this. The main tour of a bank is Demonstrates statistics on earnings "are based on the abolition of surveys of the population, through expansion factors, which depend on the upgrade of population projections in each Account." That is, they say, to make the dimensions can not diminish the extent of their philosophy as immigrants.

Indeed, the only figure they want to achieve is that between 120,000 and 190 thousand people have been included with their workforce and in the last and not INE has been responsible for that.

So, the blind Cell is to understand the truth itself in employment? "No need to do anything, for any investigation, it is easy to deal with population changes, that is what happened 2 years ago The important thing is that the INE is already making the corrections , "a & # 39; mentions Juan Bravo, macro-economic analysis of UC Cups.

Indeed, the scientist agrees that "correct correction elements are: a non-upgraded sampling framework and the recycling amplification factors. These corrections give the figures to disable gradually to attack larger figures according to truth. "

For its part, Jorge Gajardo, an U. Central economist, shows that "the BC perceived the failure in the demographic projection that would be very old and unacceptable. emigrating and that the instrument would "" fail. But are the INE figures wrong? "The job market is giving its own mark, and if there was a lot of more earnings, there should be a marked increase in the salary bill, which does not cause it & # 39; s it is stagnant, "said the academy.

Finally, Gajardo says "it is easy to understand how the BC explains, but I feel it's a dangerous and that it suits the government. " It is true when he says we need a more complex set of marks. to make a statistical base more secure, but their accommodation is not validated. "

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