The main bank dropped down the long-term funding of 800 billion yuan
On 15 January and 25 January, separately, 0.5 percentage points. Professionals believe that the central bank should reduce the RRR more than once this year.
As expected by the market, RRR's boots have a & # 39; middle bank has fallen. Yesterday, the middle bank indicated that it reduced a reserve reserve ratio from 1 percent per cent financial institutions, and on January 15 and January 25, 2019, was reduced by 0.5%. At the same time, the Medium Term Loan Facility (MLF), which will be finalized in the first quarter of 2019, is not updated. The main bank said that this move is intended to provide additional support for the development of the real economy, to improve the structure of prosperity and to reduce funding costs. This arrangement can be fundamental to preserving the silver-changing layoffs this year's spring, which is the case. supporting financial agencies to continue to increase support for small businesses and micro enterprises and private enterprises.
It's not flood watering, it is still ruled.
The relevant person who was in charge of the main bank said that the RRR cut would be about 1.5 trillion yuan of property, as well as the distribution of the property. out of work for a medium-term loan and the assets that will be released with the inclusive financial audit of the inclusive finance, and then discussing it; first quarter of the year. After the long-term loan facility is now stable, the long-term capital is about 800 billion yuan.
Does the RRR mean a change in sound money policy management? The person with care responded negatively. "The RRR cut is still a management control, not a flood of water, and statistical policy management has not changed." The relevant person who was in charge of the main bank said that the RRR cut-off policy was applied twice, depending on the cash rhythm before Fèis an Earraich, which is a very useful Fill of full fluency The banking system was largely widespread, and also took account of internal and external fairness, which helped to maintain the basic sustainability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and fair level.
According to reports, the net reduction of RMB 800 billion long term financing assets for RRR cutting work and associated work can effectively increase the funding resources for real-estate loans such as small enterprises and private enterprises. Replacement of medium-term loan facilities can also directly decrease the interest rate of banks with around 20 billion yuan per year, which benefits the real economy to reduce costs through bank distribution. All of them support the development of a real economy.
The relevant person who was in charge of the main bank said that the current Chinese economy has continue to develop well and that the economy operates in a reasonable range. People's Bank of China will continue to implement a careful financial policy, and maintains a moderate level of tension, not being involved in flooding, reconstruction and control, and maintains reasonable, sufficient tolerance, maintaining reasonable growth in the scale of money and credit and social funding, macro-stable decoration and internal and external balance. High quality development and structural lighting will provide light and adequate financial and financial environment.
The RRR is already ahead of its market.
It is worth noting that there are many beginners in the RRR cutting of their main banks. It can be said to be expected to & # 39; market on RRR cut in January has been heating up. At the State Council executive meeting held on the 24th of a month, he put forward "the development of its policy for a focused reduction on inclusive finance. The policy should be Increase small loans to small and medium-sized banks and new internet banks. " The central bank will usually work after setting up targeted installments at the State Council executive meeting. For example, on 20 June, 2018, a State Council executive meeting was used "to sustain smaller funding and micro-enterprise problems, and continue to encourage the economy to reduce costs". Subsequently, on June 24, the midfielder identified a balanced RRR cutting line.
In addition, just three days ago, the day-to-day bank named its new working day of the new year from 2019, the financial level will be for small loans and micro- A change has changed from "single family credit of less than 5 million yuan" to "Single family credit is less than 10 million yuan." This means not only that institutions that have not met a reduction the targeted RRR is made up for the "RRR reduction" benefits, but expanding a comprehensive RRR reduction will increase, which will clearly Manage financial finances to meet the loan needs of smaller enterprises. Small small microfinks will be beneficial.
Just at noon yesterday, the Chinese government's network sent a message saying Prime Li Keqiang visited China Bank, Business and Commercial Bank and the Inclusive Bank of Construction Fund on January 4 and held a forum for the Commission Banking Management. The Prime Minister said it is essential to intensify the macro-economic policy transformation changes, take further steps to reduce taxes and reduce costs, and use comprehensive reduction tools and targeted mitigation tools to support private and minority enterprises small trips. This statement has built more than market expectations for the RRR cutting bank bank.
The previous group was estimated to have the correct time for the month.
Usually, the market partners expect the main bank to have declined after Year's Day; New and before Spring Festival, most likely from mid-January to early February.
For example, CITIC's based income analysis clearly believes RRR RRR looks like before Spring Festival in 2019. In January 2019, the relative natural quality of the property was relatively high, with a similar position to 2018 in the clarity of a banking system. This RRR cut is likely to be launched after New Year's Day and will be implemented before and after completing investments receipts and tax payers.
Shen Xinfeng, a macro-analytical head of North East Division, believes that it is expected that his / market again introduced in the RRR cut in the banking center in January. On the one hand, the economy still has a pressures and requires financial policy care; Before Spring, the period of liquidity is tight, and time is also appropriate to incorporate coherent policies. However, the future funding policy does not still flood flood, and Focusing on supporting the financing of private enterprises and small micro video, and taking account of the flow of broadcast channels for cash policy.
Zhang Yu, director of macroeconomic research at Huachuang Securities, also expects to meet the extent in mid-January, s if credit lines continue to & # 39; scratch.
The Smithson Research Report Guotai began in detail that the central bank will be able to; Its decline is marked to a minimum of 100 foundations in January. According to the report, in late December last year, the National Public Transport Sustainable Committee agreed and spent some of the local government debt limits in advance. Emphasizing local debt solution and repayment, the infrastructure will be supported. The increase in government bond provision has affected market intelligence. The main bank is expected to be 100 points in January.
The whole is still playing the impact
Lian Ping, the chief economist of a Communications Bank, said the RRR has chosen a key time window. Prior to the year and Fèis Earraich, there is usually a more obvious change in market clarity. The RRR cutdown helps to maintain and maintain legitimate happiness in the market and strengthen Market confidence throughout the year. It should be said that the current financial policy is still under the overall sound, but the policy guidelines are still comparatively clear. It wants to make appropriate adjustments to the solution based on real needs, to make reasonable and sufficient reach in the market, but a fairly tight target State.
The economic leader of the ICBC International, Cheng Shi, said that this RRR cut is in line with a previous republic and is expected to have a triple post.
Initially, from the direction of the direction, after four RRRs continued in 2018, the RRR will be delivered in a short time, and the clarity spread out of around 800 billion yuan, again to consolidate the position of indirect financial or street policy. It will consolidate expectations to & # 39; market and danger, and thus accelerate the spread of "broad money" to "broad credit".
Secondly, from the arithmetic, this depression is divided into two steps, which is particularly used to clear the market tension in particular before Spring Festival. In terms of the resilience of the resilience of the US resources and how it can be considered; the global market will be back, this will help to risk the risk ahead of the time and avoid it being brought to the underlying core risk of credit.
Thirdly, from the structural view, this RRR is cut larger than the MLF stock, and it is expected that it will continue to eliminate the "precious price" MLF to small and medium-sized banks financial and so on; accelerate small funding allowance and micro enterprises and private enterprises. Take action on market optimization at a time.
It is expected that practitioners will drop down last year
In 2018, the main bank dropped the RRR four times, each time the investment asset ratio reduced by 0.5-1 percent per cent, and lending around 2.3 trillion yuan. Practitioners typically consider that a fair bank should not be reduced just last year.
Wei Wei, lead director of Ping An Securities, believes that the RRR cut is expected to be at least three or four times in 2019. At present, economic data shows that there is an emphasis Economically, the economy is down, and the money policy needs to be calm enough. In addition to the RRR cut, the market also hopes to cut interest in reducing unit financing costs, and fiscal policies also reduce tax and tax. These measures are generally for economic sustainability.
Economist ICBC International Director, Cheng Shi, expects to have a total or targeted reduction of 250 basic points; at least 2019 to make the most effective impact above, so "Grow Up" to open a policy place to "improve reform".
Peking University The Guanghua Management School published the "China Economic Outlook 2019" report on January 3, which states that the payment level will not be reduced by 2019, and the money will not be & # 39; Increasingly, but the main bank is expected to reduce the total level with about 2 percentage points. Flexible use of a variety of structured management tools that are structured to correct the correct correction of clarity.
The report expects the main bank to be & # 39; paying more attention in 2019 to strengthen the transfer of cash policy and resolve a structural shortage problem. In order to solve the structural problems in terms of the adequacy of interconnection in the interbank market and the problem in the & funds private and small enterprises, financial policy and central bank has already shown clear marks. In addition, the middle bank also supports the privacy of private enterprises through more specific policy tools. This pattern will continue and will be strengthened in 2019. The central bank will focus specifically on the development of the cash policy distribution system, in order to achieve its objective; Helps support from the real economy through a funding system, so flood watering will not be back.
However, Lian Ping, the chief economist of a Communications Bank, expects RRR to have a frequency and frequency; The mid-term cut bank in 2019 will be less than 2018. The ability is a lower level to reduce the level of shareholders for small investments and loans, there is no place but the Another man rises unnecessary disturbance.
Lian Ping believes that there are two reasons for cutting the RRR: Initially, the economy still has a pressures, and financial support is needed to support it. In particular with regard to non-credit funding, there is a specific circle, and credit is reduced to a small extent. In broader terms, this means that a debt side needs to be & # 39; bank stay in good condition; either foreign exchange may be low in 2019, so a market increase through the decline of the RRR must be moderate. However, in order to avoid "discharged floods", under the determination that the availability of reasonableness is reasonable, in particular, the RRR may not be sustained; declined dramatically. Text / reporter Cheng Wei
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