Clouds gather over a global economy


Thick darkness over US CapitolPhotocopy
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What is 2019 for the global economy?

In fact, the clouds are in the horizon, but 2018 in total was a reasonable year.

Global growth may be around 3.7% when all the numbers exist, depending on the International Currency Finance.

The largest economies in the world are likely to record levels of expansion measurement.

The majority of all, the USA, had two strong forts in the middle of the year. Data will arrive for the last three months at the end of January, and as long as they may be. show that they are slowing down, it's likely that a & # 39; year of almost 3%.

As regards China, the repression has followed three decades of amazing evolution. But it is still likely to be around 6.6% in 2018, which is far beyond enough to create important improvements in normal life standards.

Most of its mainstream protocols have a & # 39; recommends that the revival after a large decline will be continue for another year and more.

So what about the clouds?


There may be slower growth in the US. The 2018 increase showed Landlord Trump's tax cuts. There is some debate about its survival. Does it happen one-time that will be a? sweep out like sugar, or will it have a permanent impact on incentives to work and store?

The main bank, the Official Reserve, also has an impact. Did he continue to raise levels of interest to maintain inflation near their 2% target following the four similar trends made in 2018?

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President Trump was released at the Feteral Army Reserve when US stock markets came over last year's last year

President Trump certainly believes that the Deer could make a lot of harm. Yes, he said, "The only problem that our economy"South Westerly

He has been making equal points again, to the extent that the Financial Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, felt he had to say publicly that his headteacher's desire was not to give money to the chairman Jerome Powell. (It is not clear that he has the authority to do so, but he may decline to give another time as chairman when the person enters the term in 2022, if He is still president).

Despite that, its & # 39; president to influence what much would be; Consideration of adverse effects on deer that have the potential for unsolicited financial markets. The deer received responsibility for a cash policy, which includes a policy of interest rates, with a & # 39; Of Congress.

The main point of view among economists is that keeping away from the middle of the political area is better to control long-term inflation.

There are other sequences for the economic policy of President Trump that could adversely affect economic growth: international trade.

Excavation tariffs?

The US has become a major factor in trading with China about what President Trump wants China to say American technology technology is doing business there.

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Will China's President Xi support the & # 39; US trade war with more results?

Three months a year, the tasks that the administration has already placed on a wide range of Chinese material has increased by 10% to 25%. It can be expected that China will be repealed how it has done to it; first round of awards.

It is true that the Rev. Trump and Xi have kept some speeches and it is possible that the increase will be given. But he is not sure sure.

And then the US stores on steel and aluminum, which are saved to national security protection, have influenced a large number of US trade partners.

The prospect of exploring trading disasters is a big scout over the economic perspective.

European Cure

Europe also has its own difficulties. The economic data for the third quarter of the year showed that a & # 39; growing growth in the eurozone.

Some of these may be short-lived as a result of new modes to be able to; trying to measure vehicle emissions, eliminate the motor business. However, the revival that has never been a very strong start of revival.

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The subject of the affairs of EU affairs at this time

A departmental manufacturing survey in the department showed that the change in December continued to have a disability in two separate economies, both in Italy and in France.

Europe's own trade case also wants to worry about it: Brexit. The UK is due to leave the EU on March 29. There is a wide range of possible outcomes, some of which may be able to eliminate the trade between the UK and the mainland.

World Trade

More from BBC series a & # 39; provides an international trade perspective:

Depression Reporters?

Stock markets were in 2018. Many of the strong benefits that were recorded early in the year were larger than the turnover. Overall, this is a & # 39; The worst year for global markets (and many individuals) from the time the financial argument came.

Lower sector prices can be a warning signal of wider economic problems that are coming ahead, sometimes even a decline. But it is not a reliable indication of a collapse that falls into falling prices.

Paul Samuelson, the Nobel Prize Economist, once said "Wall Street indexes expected nine of the last five reasons." A market can be a & # 39; giving a wrong warning.

There is a connection market, where debt is due; including government bonds, traded, has also been close to warning the US perspective.

Something called the indirect product bend has been a more reliable reporter in decline, although it is not very detailed about when.

That said, there are economists who think the US could be able to; is going to decline, not this year but in 2020. Nouriel Roubini, who was ahead of the financial crisis, was one. It also warns that the downturn it is going to be; expect to be more difficult for the government and the Force Reserve to deal with it.

China's worries are also worried – in the form of a burden of increase in debt in the public and private sector, which can still be done. hindered financial sustainability. Business analyzes show orders to new makers in December, for their & # 39; first time in two years.

Everything that says, there are still clear reasons for the vision as something that is harder to be read and exceeded than it is for a number of years.

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