Does REM attend to make decisions?



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The Medium Bank was the responsibility of this data to remove the 60% annual floor for the level of application. The last REM, the monthly survey carried out by the BCRA with figures that take the closer exams and units, and, shows the second expected rate of collapse inflation.

The problem is that this product does not use BCRA to "make economic and economic policy decisions", always in line with the projections. Reason for considering whether it is appropriate to establish basic decisions of macro or business policies on what these estimates say.

For example, in January 2018, the REM expected that this year's inflation would be 18.6%. The BCRA's advocacy level is 21.15% annually. And the dollar would recite at 21.90 pesos. These are the figures set up at the end of the year, including the 28-D, when the Finance Department, the BCRA and the Chief Executive Staff changed the inflation target from 10/12 to 15% annually.

This change may be taken as a decay to protect the changes. But they stayed in REM in February. And the data is not necessarily a difference with what happened in fact. It was inflationed in the last 12 months, 48.5%. The level is 59% and the dollar is over $ 38.

If they were in a private company, they had used these estimates to build the 2018 budget, those that depend on each area would still be interpreted. The quotations from Budget numbers agreed by the & # 39; Transport is just as heavy. Public accounts are made to estimate that inflation would be 15.7%; The normal dollar would be 19.30 pesos and the economy would grow 3%.

There is a little suspicious that believes that the respondents would Coming to larger or more difficult Media data. And, with their private users, they would handle other numbers of numbers. In order to be fair, what could be taken out what would be done? happening this year, from April? REM of July showed a change of the statements: 31.8% for inflation, 35% and dollar at $ 30 by the end of the year. The same was short.

From the consultees they defend themselves. There are 29 private studios, 7 private banks, 14 foreigners, two public, several shoes and some universities. All known and renowned. The full list is available on the BCRA website http://www.bcra.gov.ar/Pdfs/PublicacionesEstadisticas/Participantes%20(REM).pdf

The economist, who is the head of macroeconomics research, says that "to REM we put the basic situation we are most likely to expect. With our clients we will add other situations, and we are less likely to identify. "

"Companies are trying to face constant circumstances of stress, to prove justice or cash flow in real situations," he wants, badly.

Another Economist, who wanted to collect and handle the data in the Center, was to confirm. "It is assumed that the data is the same for REM and its customers. Generally, companies that take REM will be the only one to add their annual budgets to They make a combination with the situation that the senior consultant, REM, and other fuller numbers give, they should use to identify the figures that are to be included in the year-to-year business plan ".

Give a case to a private company, based on a positive situation: for 2019, the numbers were analyzed below with a 30% inflation and a 45% exchange rate. The National Budget for 2019 was compiled with an average CPI of 34.8% and a dollar of $ 40.1. And the last REM (by the end of November) revealed a 28.6% equation for a CPI in general for the last 12 months and a $ 47.5 average dollar.

Consultation, which also adds to the REM, is & # 39; expecting a basic position for its main destination of 27%, a 35% rate per year and a 51 pesos dollar by the end of 2019. The user companies added to it; Not sorry, with the dollar well above 60 pesos and 40% CPI.

It's just a guide in REM. It may be difficult to say that it is a "public good" of great importance … to make decisions and invest in … ", as the definition of the BCRA website.

It is not greater than the consensus of fixed estimates that, although it is faithful, may be valid. It is the one that stops attracting attention, with the economy of more than 50 banks and local councilors and foreign countries; corresponding to the slightest spread of accuracy (or, sometimes, in Scotland) the success).

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