Dolar: what's worried that the ticket is not an increase in rural danger – 11/27/2018


Seven weeks of calm exchange and dollar connected to the "floor" of the flotation band only one day the bill goes up and the yellow lights of the Argentine economy will go to the next. going on.

Some of it happened Monday when they were grazing dollar grazing $ 40, and the sale of $ 39.05, which reached the highest values ​​of the year enough to raise awareness of the inter-market exchange market.

The race has almost ever grown and on Tuesday Wholesale, the most suitable and professionally run fool, ended with a 1.3% decline at $ 38.55. Is the program past?

No one knows the Minister for Economics, Nicolás Dujovne He went on with the calm attempt to say:"We are very calm with the dollar, it's smoothly moving".

Dujovne's tranquility, in fact, includes his & her; The case is from Central Bank, Guido Sandleris, promote the willingness of eliminating all market pressures necessary to ensure that there is calm exchange.

It also contributes to the tranquility of its & # 39; Minister expends the progress of the International Monetary Fund new lines of loan (US $ 7.6 billion) counting on the intention of the group that was in Buenos Aires agree to achieve the aims of the Government in relation to the reduction of the main fiscal deficit and cash interruption; Central Bank.

The fair reserves amounted to an increase of US $ 4,952 million, reaching $ 53,955 million in October, a month where private people felt to buy tickets (they got $ 900 million) but did not go to. turn to the process dollarizer.

An iterary dollar So far this year it reaches $ 25,959 million, a record that is largely a & # 39; explains the level of exchange run and the jump in the dollar between April and September that continues to decline in the past few months.

But the calm came hand in hand with the enthusiasm that the sum of money was not going to go; Growing and paying upper levels to the Central Bank on the banks Send Litters Letter (Leliq).

Leliq started paying 74% per annum and dropped to 61.24% today in what is displayed, depending on the recycling of the Monday dollar, as a "platform" for being aware.

The Middle Bank has already announced that it is hoping to reduce the fall rates in January from 60% per annum set as the target to the end of the year. What's in a very low way? No one knows and everything shows Sandleris is working "test and error" trying to make a very good tune, when it comes to & # 39; reducing the rates.

The Government believes, by " pay her IMF and the dollar wheat and exports, That will start in January, on tools to keep the exchange market stable. But there are no dollar problems finishing there.

In the last few days, the country has a long-standing risk from its & # 39; go down, it ranged from 600 to 700 points, makes it clear that foreign markets continue to have high levels of Reliance on the Argentine economic future.

They are definitely sure that Argentina can go to; pays her debts after 2020 and they are clear that the strong support the country receives from the IMF (US $ 57.1 billion) group creditor creditor.

That adds to the political doubts contained in the summary in a question: What happens if Cristina Kirchner hit Mauricio Macri in the October election?

Kirchnerism is clear about the fear that it creates in foreign markets and is not consistent, in a report published in thepoliticaonline, the minister of the country. before Axel Kicillof I talked about it "Protecting Company Profits" and that "Today, the IMF could be reconfigured from strength level".

Kicillof, making a point in Kirchner's skin change, is also on the PJ area when he said: "I accept that everyone who says that a Peronist Peronist" adding to the old authority democrats that served Perón by José López Rega and Menem by María Julia Alsogaray of "The wide shift".

The uncertain sources are diversified by politics and the economy will really pay: long-term cash of Argentina (2046 and 100 year bonds) annual rent of 10%, very high but its failure to withdraw international investors.

The financial picture shows a dollar under the control of the short-term at election year gates that are in force; Creating expectations about the political product and the effects of capital movement.

In the middle, the game low and the development of economic activity in the first quarter of the next year.

At the same time, and in short-term, the government hopes that the international support it would receive at the G20 meeting of the world's leading directors this weekend, something Give it a few after a number of bad days for the violent actions that are all circulated to us by all Argentinians.

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