Emission targets: If there is a will (political), there is a way


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Author: Normand Mousseau, Institut de l'energy Trottier, Polytechnique Montreal and Professeur de physique, Universite de Montreal

It seems that a day does not go without a # 39; There is still another study that demonstrates human activity; The Earth's average temperature tension requires a construction point that impacts on climate change.

This increase continues despite much of the commitment of climate policy from governments around the world. Canada has many major targets, like most countries: a 80 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) gas emissions by 2050.

A new study of Outlook Energy Canada – 2050, is prepared by the Montreal Polytechnique and Pole e3 at the Montreal HEC business school, which suggests that there are impairment efforts; is currently unsuitable for achieving these commitments. However, the study also suggests that the long-term targets are from; reaching – largely due to a rapid decline in the cost of turning our energy to technology technologies; let low carbon.

Targets will not be met

The study, based on technical and economic models prepared by the Montreal ESMIA company, set five conditions for the energy system in Canada and all sectors until 2050. In conclusion: the federal government was not one of the departments, but only Nova Scotia, has set up steps to allow them to meet their own 2030 or 2050 targets.

Although Canada has been reducing 30% in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 2005, the modeling of the survey is recommends that current emissions remain constant and even 10 per cent increase by 2050 South-

This means government estimates itself, which is a It is estimated that Canada would still reduce by around 10 per cent in GHG emissions by 2030, very optimistic.

One of the main findings of this inspection is a detailed analysis of a four-section reduction division that evaluates the energy routes that must be followed to achieve: (1) targets regional (2) federal targets (30 per cent decrease compared to 2005 by 2030 and 80 per cent before 2050); (3) international targets (80 per cent compared to 1990 by 2050) and (4) federal targets to buy 20 per cent of GHG distribution shares from California, in line with the Canadian National Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change end of 2017.

Are capable goals

The most important results of these modules are that the most ambitious objectives for reducing compliance glues both technically and economically.

Indeed, it is estimated that the extra cost of the final equivalent tonne of CO2 has been eliminated 2050 to meet international targets at around $ 1,000. Although this cost is likely to be compared to the # 39; Carbon price today (about $ 20 per tonne under federal program), it is comparable to the cost to be & # 39; Reducing emissions from programs run by the Green Asset in Quebec.

Even more important, this amount is 30 per cent lower than a similar assessment made only three years ago for a 70 per cent reduction in GHG emissions. This assessment showed a small cost of $ 1,400 per tonne of CO2 equivalents. The difference is largely due to the pace of technological changes in the energy sector and its fall in solar energy prices and batteries.

The analysis of the impact of these goals on the departments also shows unexpected trends. For example, although Saskatchewan is now charging on carbon price, by 2050 he would not have a " Continent to pay more than the rest of Canada to meet the national targets. The models show that Saskatchewan could even reduce 90% by 2050, long & in which Canada can generally reduce by 80 per cent.

Problems in Ontario

In contrast, Ontario seems to have more difficulty in changing the energy system. At the remote cost of Canada, its majority would reduce its emissions by just 70 per cent, and recommends the importance of supporting the development of new green technologies.

To achieve GHG reduction, each department needs to accept specific solutions that show its resources and environment. It is also essential for all levels of government – from home to departmental to departmental – embracing a collaborative approach based on best science and customs.

This approach should be able to develop integrated strategies, both in energy generation and the use.

If the climate objectives for 2030 and 2050 are economically reasoned, as shown in this Outlook Energy, the transformation that will be needed significantly . And it will not be successful without the support of a real transition strategy – which is unfortunately still very difficult at all levels of government in Canada.

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