Established term, bands, cards and personal loans: what impact will reduce rates to & # 39; Central Bank?


The energy-releasing levels can be provided by the Central Bank after its completion of the floor has been 60% off; disappeared in the last three months also reduce the results of established terms and other instruments in pesos, although the authority needs to maintain a fair balance so that new migration of investments in pesos with the dollar does not occur.

According to experts consulted, contingent rates tend to "normalize" to rest of the designated variations of the economy. And that will be translated, for freight and consumer, to the costs of falling money lending openly, in a & # 39; fund credit cards and personal loans, as well reducing the timing of set timetables, which was slightly higher than 50% in October and November.

High levels of interest showed poor blow to economic activity. Since the end of August, when the last strong exchange rate decided, the Central Bank at that time led Luis Caputo decided to raise the level with 15 points to try to escape the US money, with his promise to keep it at a minimum level. from 60% to December. The new leadership of the center was relatively advanced in the production of that ground.

On the first day of Leliq's offer after he has announced that the ground of the minimum 60% of cash policy has been deleted, this financial instrument is not a short time (7 days) and is just resolved between the financial authority and the banks their average yield was 59.102%. Also, the dollar came to an end to confirm how it was issued and increased from almost 70 cents to just 5.

A Central Bank decision that seeks to consolidate a level of less than 60% is also related to external factors. "We can not separate ourselves from the international context, there was a reduction in the cost of oil barrel, which caused the expectation of inflation in the United States to slow down and Force Force stops rising levels. Locally, that means there is less pressure, and it is largely due to this that the Bank agrees to; Central end of the Leliq rate floor, "said Florencia Galván's capital market analyst.

In fact, there is a return of statistics path so that they can. Return to normal rates, in principle, danger around the corner, and if so, do not do so with their criteria; which could mean revival of exchange rate weight.

"The financial authority must move a balance between continuing to reduce the level of activity loss and Maintaining the application for pesos, not to & # 39; creating an exchange event that ban the cuts"explained Martin Vauthier, the ecologist of the EcoGo counseling.

If the Central Bank is consistent, manage this route of depreciation rates to be delivered without a? Return weight to weight, denominated variations, such as flat levels, should be altered. closer to projected inflation, 30% for the next two months.

In this regard, economist Mariano Otálora, an expert in personal finance, thought that "the fixed time is more than 50% higher, and at present it is hard to get 50% instead of the banks offer 42, 43 or 44% annually, and thus, there will also be a reduction in the general levels of the economy, financing credit cards, gardens (checking census advances) and personal loans"

There are also games to play games: usually the demand for dollars is to play; Increase, especially as an investment of the second half of a Christmas call. "We should not expect to have the highest in the short term, but can create Ultimately a choice of foreign money rather than a fixed time. It is always a proposal to be mixed during investing, both in the selected devices and in market departments and money, "said Galván.

Vauthier recommends another option to evaluate the & # 39; live in pesos or dollars: look at rural danger. "The average level of 50% is 4.2%, so that the dollar's movement above that level will end its output solution. " So, more than gradual changes in the level, what is expected of depreciation, which is very relevant to keeping a close eye on rural risk dynamics, "he said.

Finally, Otalora explains in detail what percentage of components should be in each money to avoid unnecessary risks. "The balance of the dollar and the associated penalty, which does not mean the higher levels, mean that you need to be in pesos, and the dollar shown in November as 5 % increase and you eat all profits. I choose to have 70% of the dollar in a dollar and a little in pesos and in the short term. "

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