For economists, the dollar is still near the ground floor without interventions – 04/01/2019



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An Central Bank Continued with limited financial policy liability. This Friday The price of a $ 37.37 offender was $ 37.37 and dropped eight pence per day. In this way, the exchange rate was coming down the interventional zone of intervention; Central Bank. This border ends at $ 37.21. Monday is $ 37.28 – it is updated daily so that it's a 2% collection increase in its & # 39; month.

An economist believes that the dollar is Continued through this area of ​​the non-intervention sector. The price of the dollar costs between $ 48.19 and $ 37.21 – yesterday – according to supply and demand. If it passes one of the boundaries, automatically, the bank will resist & stabilize Since the start of the scheme, the exchange rate was not overcoming & # 39; from the middle of the corridor. Instead, he would always go down. At the beginning of November, there were eight cents from the ground.

According to surveys The move continues in the days ahead. Bárbara Guerezta, economist of Arriazu Macroanalysts, says "seeing a dollar is closer to the ground than the roof". The reasons for the economist include "The number of economic pesos is active [N.E.: léase el dinero para que las familias y personas atiendan sus obligaciones], it makes it difficult to think that it is a sum; to the process of the dollarization that took place in 2018, even when we see uncertainty of voting this year. "The economist also causes two other reasons that expose the demand for a dollar: banking policies of the Central Bank and the Treasury Department.

Gabriel Caamaño, of the Ledesma consultation, agree. "I see the dollar near the floor. And if you're back, it will only be away." For Jorge Neyro, from ACM, "we see it near the lowest end, but we do not break it. To do this in an ongoing way, immigration must be a significant capital, less than a risk the country and the bond price increase. "The country's threat dropped 100 points this week and in that situation, yesterday, the 11 cents retail dollar fell.

The sum of money in the economy is increasing in December for seasonal purposes (holidays, bonus of Christmas). So, in January, it is expected that a demand will be lower for pesos compared to the previous month. According to Caamaño, BCR would exceed the financial objective of this month with around $ 15,000 million. That would cause the bank to reduce the level of interest. Today the level of bills and deposits at GDP is lower, says Guerezta.

The Mid Bank this week explained how it would work if the dollar is – the market where banks and companies are working – breaking the floor: Buys $ 50 million a day – send forward an application – with a & # 39; The condition that this weight increase does not exceed 2% of the fundamental funding objective made in the agreement with the IMF. So, the rate would fall.

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