The British economy has a major risk in a Brexit case without agreement, a situation that led to strong commercial disruption and a sharp reduction in household output (GDP), warning Tuesday on International Finance.
In a report issued before its next meeting in the spring and only days from the EU's deadline for Fridays, the IMF has carried out an audit. about the effects of two types on the UK economy of Brexit without agreement.
One will include that there are no barriers to trade, the other assumes that there would be strong disturbance with the increase in import costs for UK companies and homes.
In the worst case scenario, the IMF says "a 1.4% reduction in the UK GDP"in the first year after that" tthere's no reconciliation"then 0.8% next year, with no further information.
The European Union does not lose the influence of this mound and shows its GDP losing 0.2% and then 0.1%.
The IMF states that the overall impact on UK GDP will be 3.5% by 2021, and 0.5% for the EU.
The international institution states that these predictions cannot affect Brexit without agreement, or the political responses made to prevent damage to the economy.
In his own positionthere's no reconciliation", the IMF believes that if there is no trade agreement with the EU, that the United Kingdom, which is subject to WTO rules, will return to customs sanctions and loss of treaties. The Fund also provides a a significant reduction in usage rates on goods imported by the country in the Brexit scenario are not agreed.
Even accepting that there will be an agreement on Brexit, which remains a prime position, the IMF is much more depressed about Britain's growth for the next two years. It is now expected that a GDP increase of 1.2% will increase this year, before a small 1.4% return in 2020. In its most recent forecast, it appeared earlier this year at an economic forum. T Davos, he thought. stronger by 1.5% and 1.6% respectively.