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Poll of Europe: In March the gap will expand



In the third wave of our daily Ifop-Fiducial vote for Paris Match, CNews and Sud Radio, most of the biggest settings are in place; Increase its direction across the National Collection.

The level is set: in the third wave of the daily Ifop-Fiducial Euro-Rolling for Paris Match, CNews and Sud Radio, La République in Marche and its company at Modem are firmly based on its & # 39; highest point of the podium. European Elections on May 26 the next day. On Thursday, 14 March, when she goes into the "Political Emission" platform on France 2 Nathalie Loiseau, Minister of European Affairs and the head of the list will prefer her first performance at a precious time. And against a challenger in choice of Marine Le Pen. The National Conductor president has already shortened his knife for a & # 39; the head of the National Administration School (ENA) strikes to "expose" to spend his time disturbing the face. "

With 25% of voting intentions, most president's & # 39; get 0.5%. When the RN list is drawn by Jordan Bardella's young slides at the same time with 0.5% (21.5% of the votes): more than three points between the two forms, this is the first time since the Ifop Survey. Indeed, a few days after the release of his stage for "European revival", Emmanuel Macron will confirm his house: 76% of his supporters are in the last president's election ready to be loyal to her in the & # 39; May. By including defensive clothing. European project, the state leader has also promoted the voters near the sociologist Benoit Hamon and among Francois Fillon's supporters. Logically, the National Gazetteer is full of voice in Marine Le Pen supporters but not, at this stage, making progress in other political families.

Bipolar campaign

Behind, we play a small European Cup. Reducing the bipolar campaign between pro and anti-European has broken all the way. The LR list is still dropped to third place (12.5% ​​of voting ambitions, -0.5%). Although there are almost 14 different lists, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (7%, =) rejected the ecologist Yannick Jadot (8%, + 0.5%) through the PS always to strive with a 5% symbolic bar, a 10% address. But down however: at the entrance to the campaign, no more than one out of three voters is still sure of their choice …

About villagers mistake

Statistical theory quantifies the uncertainty that is linked to the results of the inspection. This uncertainty is expressed by an inter-confidence based on both sides of the value set and in which the same value is very similar to being. This uncertainty, known as "error margin", is based on the sample size and the percentage surveyed. When the difference between two lists is smaller than this error, the order of the two lists is unsure.

The methodology and the error margins that are specific to each survey are set out in the detailed report, published daily and available above. If Ifop clearly states that "the results of this survey should be defined as an important indicator of the state of current power balance" but not in any way as " a preliminary element of the results on polling day ".

To view the entire survey procedures, click here.

Any reconstruction was banned


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