Just about a week before Election Day, the polls feature a very impressive race between a Likud party and their competition, Blue and White, with both their wings and a neck.
That is, at any stage, as Blue and White speak about the race. The party takes around 30-30 sets with Likud as their victorious gentleman. Benny Gantz, the former chief executive of IDF, who manages the new first generation slate, has passed from a political neophyte to a near leader. And just like the party can offer the job a challenging challenge for the practitioner Likud himself is benefiting from elections with the strong ability to attract voters hoping to send packing to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
According to the party and its directors, the man on Sunday as a mark of ten years in power is dangerously close to losing his first election from the 2009 influence, and Gantz meets the political chaos t . All is needed but a final push is to give Blue and White the Likud more seats and replace Netanyahu as Prime Minister, they say.
Only seven days to the national town, the party's strategy is based on one thing: getting better than Likud.
“Our focus has been on being the biggest party, making sure we are ahead of April 9,” Blue and White Yarden Avriel's spokesman for All Day. -Times of Israel.
In a message directed to voters not from Likud, but from other parties who are also campaigning on the Netanyahu platform, Blue and White say that the only way to ensure is the prime minister is free to visit the principal headteacher's flag.
“Anyone who wants to see us building equality must vote for us; anyone who wants to use Benny Gantz as a prime minister must vote on our behalf, ”said Avriel. “Once we are the largest party, the work of the government is raised in our hands.”
There is only one problem: Not absolutely necessary.
Israel's governments are not made up of separate parties, but in partnerships there are less than four parties. So the biggest election winners are not the winners, but the biggest blocks. When the mid-group Kadima won under Tzipi Livni 28 seats in the 2009 election, Netanyahu, with just 27 seats, became the prime minister because the Likud could rely on support from enough parties to fulfill the demands of the European Union. give him a lot in the Knesset which has 120 seats.
That is why Likud now admits that he is making the election.
The two governing parties and the competition are up to voting at around 30 seats. But a proper shield, a block directed by Likud, in which all the parties have already said it is better to see Netanyahu still in power rising dramatically to anywhere between more than 52 and 62 seats. With the support of the rightful right parties – the New Right, the Union Party of Justice and Yisrael Beytenu – and the parties that make up multinationals within United Torah Judaism and England, there is Likud's path. to a closer and closer management consortium than other competitors.
Blue and White's blue strategy is responsible for simple reporting: The more they can do on Election Day, the more the race will be done by one man – President Reuven Rivlin t
On Blue and White, without all the Arab-Israeli parties that annulled, it's Balad, al-Hadash (and everyone except who went past). Gantz can only trust with support from Labor and Meretz leaving them with 40-45 seats in the distance. And just on the right from Kulanu, a member of the current consortium, and the national nation Zehut – who are likely to stand up from eight to 10 seats between them – it is has been open to linking Blue and White or Likud.
Gantz's ability to lead consortia on three complex matters is therefore expected: a number of parties would expect them to submit to the Knesset without significantly changing the electoral threshold. the balance between power between the two main bones; Blue and White's Knesset tour; and whether parties stand to the promise given after all the votes have been counted.
However, Blue and White's strategy rests largely on simple calculations: The more they will do on Election Day, the more the race will be decided by one t man – President Reuven Rivlin.
Who will win?
Israel's election has three stages: election for the parliament, the election of the first minister's presidency, and negotiation of a coalition government to form a government with a parliamentary majority.
The people of Israel have nothing to say in the first part. Usually the third part is in a place, latterly.
And so, eight days before the polls open, this is the second stage, the election of prime minister, that is the strange name of the race. If 61 or more MKs recommend one applicant, it is almost certain that Rivlin will be involved in that applicant with the building of a consortium. If the majority of the newly-selected 120 MKs are not reached, there is no clear guidance on how Rivlin decides to whom to trust the government's leadership, and some contributions t legal.
By law, the Prime Minister may be one of the 120 newly elected MKMs. She does not need to be the leader of the biggest party, or even a leader of any party. And Netanyahu is very concerned that Rivlin, the president who has been openly open, could show more creativity than had previously been done.
In a series of carefully selected series over recent weeks, Rivlin has indeed begun to clarify that he will not be defeated, even if he has to keep out what he meant. what he expects to do.
Delivering civil lesson to the 12th graduates of Beth Shemesh, Rivlin said it was an emigrant's responsibility of the people – and no one else. “In the State of Israel, and in any democratic state, there is one sovereignty and not the government, but the people. There are a lot of opinion and kinds of people. As a rule, the president has to take into account what the people wanted in the election, as it was reflected in the results of the vote, ”he said to the students.
Two scenarios where Rivlin could see “what the people want” is in Netanyahu.
The first one: If Netanyahu's group Likud saw the opportunity to put the next government in danger from the proposed distilling costs after the prime minister t In the election there would be a theory that there would be nothing to stop even MKs Netanyahu from suggesting another key candidate from among their class.
Before primary school began in February, Netanyahu made it clear that Likud, Gideon, had been on the agenda after he had gone back to politics after breaking Rivlin scramble. seeing that the president would be sideline Netanyahu after the elections and working on the job of creating a government instead. It even managed unsuccessfully to change one of Israel's constitutional Constitutional Laws, to ensure that only the leader of an elected political party has a right to create a government and not a any other figures on party lists.
In the second case, if there is no majority at the right wing or left-hand block, it is expected that the president will announce the person he thinks is the best chance of chores. building a widow. And that is where it's difficult. If, for example, more MKs recommend Netanyahu for the prime minister, but the biggest possible party is Blue and White, the president could argue that the will is acceptable. people asking Gantz to get the first conflict to try to build a partnership. .
The rough political battle that could be between Netanyahu and Gantz, which might confess that they represented people's wishes, would not be matched directly through the arguments of the constitutional pupils.
“The rule is that the party will have the first chance to build government,” said Suzie Navot, a constitution, which delivers a lecture at The Law School Haim Striks, dismissing the idea to the number of recommendations increases. It is true that Livni at Kadima had a bigger place in 2009 of Likud, “but that was an example. If the gap between the two parties was bigger then the president would be far more difficult to let the party make its first attempt. ” T
Dr. Hugh Campbell said: t Ofer Kenig, senior lecturer at Ashkelon Academic College and researcher at the Institute of Democracy in Israel, however, said the situation would be “a real headache for Rivlin.” T
According to Merchant, just more seats, even with a significant gap over the second party, give a promise that “you have a better chance of building a sustainable partnership within a reasonable time. ”
“I think the president will leave that census,” he said, in the context where Netanyahu is from the majority of members in the new Knesset.
Rivlin himself has said that both capacities are possible.
“The question is,” he said to the students in Beit Shemesh, “what does the president do when there isn't a majority for one? What should it be noted? Maybe the party is the biggest? It may be a question of how many MKs support one candidate rather than the number who support a different candidate, and whether the best chance is the MK who received the most support to get others to form a consortium with it. ” t
Unfortunately for Netanyahu, for now the president is more willing to ask questions than he wants to provide answers.
Learn about the block
But Rivlin could also think too. If the block with Likud's right had been able to seat at least 61 seats, and Blue and White were the biggest party, Gantz may not need most.
The law is here ambiguous: A majority of MKs can give government a vote with no confidence, but the government doesn't need much support and the coalition, in theory, can be. T with less than 61 MKs. Basic Law: The government clearly states that there is a simple majority – compared to a 61-seat majority – enough.
That's what Netanyahu means when it says that Blue and White are a “blocked block” of parties that want to dispose of it, even by the less happy about Gantz's Prime Minister. In a drive to encourage voters on the right, the main spokesman has said that his main opponent is cooperating with the Arab parties in an attempt to bring down a long-term rule of Likud. In fact, he is now one of the main political parties in the party's election campaign.
In one recent video, Netanyahu net, which was decorated with a floating apron with kindly band, some oils and broken two eggs into a frying pan.
'That's enough, I know how to cook. But I know what they cook up, ”he says, referring to Blue and White. “They cook a government on the left, supported by the left parties and the Arab parties. They don't want anyone. ”
The clear subtitle: a warning to the lucky soils Likud that vote for the Blue and white chip list gives the Arab parties, which are the majority of the Jewish Jews thought beyond white. Only Likud guarantees the south-western coalition and it does not have to rely on support from parties against Shannon.
The establishment of a small government would be the result of unprecedented parliamentary elections in Israel, but is nevertheless the option of a number of constitutional pupils.
“It's probably a situation, maybe,” said Gideon Rahat, who teaches political science at the Hebrew University. “Governments are world-wide. In this particular case, Arab parties do not have to actively support Gantz. They only have to fight it.
Kenig, the IDI, agreed that he had the opportunity, but said he believed Gantz would be allowed to make it out for political reasons. “To start the government depends on external support from the Arab parties – publicly, it would be crucified,” he said.
But Rivlin has been opposed to attempts to disqualify political parties and, in a rare display of public magic, which has "scrapped a totally indifferent problem against Arabic people from Israel in these elections". T . ”
Speaking at a conference to mark the 40th anniversary of the Israel / Egypt peace agreement last month, Rivlin said, “No, and no, one will be of the kind, and not second-class voters … We are all equal in the voting booth – Jews and Arabs, the citizens of the State of Israel. ”
All were equal. All rights reserved. All options.
Instead of a single flower of Blue and white-or Likud failing in any of the above situations, getting Rivlin still has a final and dramatic choice, one that even warned that he might be his favorite choice. : if a candidate did not win 61 recommendations for a whole post, the president may decide that he will strengthen a national unity government.
Is that president able to do that? Yes, with marvelous pleasure.
In these very secret days, I ask you to follow in Eshkol steps: the way you conform and accept, seeing the other person as a partner. T right for common political activity – not like the enemy inside.
According to Kenig, it is entirely within Rivlin's constitutional rights to offer an Ultimatum to Gantz and Netanyahu: to agree to a national union unity, dividing the main decision by circulation, or receiving the first opportunity for a leading opponent.
Indeed, “this is the most reasonable thing [scenario], ”Said Kenig.
Rivlin's own ideas, which were given at a spectacular event last year for the 50th anniversary of the death of the ancient Prime Minister, Levi Eshkol, can prove so big.
“Eshkol was not just a party man. From the moment he was elected prime minister, he was the leader of all Israel. When I say a director, I mean in the complete sense of the world: a man with power to think about a different truth, a better truth than what is present, and a skill to make it happen. That's Eshkol, ”said Rivlin, maybe trying to stop Netnayhu sitting in the front row, or perhaps to meet him.
Taking account of the decision to introduce the Herut group into the government before the First World War in 1967, Rivlin said it was an Eshkol order to leave the Review icon icon Ev Jabotinsky to Israel “the first step and the essential step in taking Herut as a legitimate political move. ”
“And then saw the second dramatic step that Eshkol took as First Minister,” said Rivlin. “Eshkol, who understood Herut was a valid part of the country, was enough to accept the party led by Into the national unity government before the war. ”
At the end of his remarks, with Netanyahu now passing his chest, Rivlin dropped out of it at last: “In these ceremonial days, I ask you to follow in steps Eshkol: the method of reconciliation and acceptance, seeing the other side. as a valid partner for a common political activity – not like the enemy inside. ”
At the same time, as their campaign comes, Gantz and Netanyahu have announced that they do not sit in government with the other – because they had the choice of their own.
Raphael Ahren and Haviv Rettig Gur helped this report,