Markets support disappointment, ease and fear


Friday 7 December 2018

Cambiemos and Non-Independent or Citizens' Union Units do not manage to withdraw the investors.

Markets support disappointment, ease and fear

Le Sergio Berensztein for La Nación

It is better than a commitment to "out", saying the most remote person. In a financial market, many are believed again. Yearly to Macri student, who promised the timetable of transformational structures. This reputation helped to produce public titles on which he traveled to the first two years of his , office and thank the same reforms. About it to turn three years into power, the largest president in the history of the history recently created, in the business community and in a large part of its electorate, deep disappointment. This is proven in the country's real danger, of 745 points, and in the weak demand for public accidents. Before turning on the trips, there are months of downturn ahead of us. Almost no one has a zoo Enjoy that there will be a lot in the short term.

Regarding the 2019 election process, pragmatic remains in the markets: Cambiemos is a disappointment, deepened by the emergency treatment of money, the smallest situation if it is; addressing the options to date. Alternative Alternative and, in particular, Citizenship Unit. This does not mean anything like the hope is to # 39; belongs to the current president's second term: "Think of other regulation with a vital majority in the two rooms, restricted by its fiscal limit, which can not move forward with the restored program, with the president "I'll give up and more controversy with" #; her case, "said an exchange stock trading agent this week.

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Because of this, massive monastic creates a problem in the markets near reliance. Many owners who had private meetings left some of their main sources between amazing and hopeful as they heard. "They are clear about the need to implement reforms, including areas of political awareness such as labor and social security," said a European investor who took part in an event before the G- 20, in which Nicolás Dujovne took the biggest danger Politician. However, there is a disappointment that happens when the same leaders are in a position; speak publicly, criticize her & # 39; program with the IMF or, additionally, to build inconsistent situations in terms of final agreement with Kirchnerism. "They do not understand that we need to win the election to management: we are in the center of the campaign," said one of the Federal Federal members. No-one knows the tradition of pragmatism that constantly identifies penalties, with a historical presentation of methods and flexible strategies to reach and become involved in power. But investment finance managers do not have time or patience that monitors two dozen countries to assess home policy details. When in doubt they prefer to sell them.

"We all have to work to achieve the unity of Peronism. It's difficult, but those who do not add, remove and help Macri's impact," said a young young minister who had been restored clearly, Thanks to such a challenge. In the markets, not only is the opinion that the most legitimate sections of the Justicialism agree with Cristina, even though there is no idea or description of the content of that commitment, growing. In the government, otherwise, they specify it: they believe that this agreement would allowing them to choose the polarization, as the remarkable central features and political construction of the Federal Federal would be abolished quickly with the strict parts of the authorized people who signify the old president.

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As the start of its selection ring is & # 39; Getting in and the main scenes of public attitudes are kept up, the idea is going on; of the return of CFK that could create a real fear of the private sector. Axel Kicillof does not try to signal the comparative assessment of his / her; any positive impact. On the other hand: the opportunity to return to a similar regulatory position is directly with basic stockings, high controls and potential risk reduction.

This is brought back by doctrinal statements such as that Cristina that was made in the treaty organized by Clacso, especially when she commented on the need for re- design and end the division of powers. Perhaps to return Kirchnerism a & # 39; Introducing a "new political system", as AMLO's weekend said the opening speech in San Lazaro, Mexican Transportation headquarters. What other essential components would include the inevitable constitutional reform that Cristina would have to do? encouraged? A re-election uncertain? This assumption brings more body due to its proximity to Evo Morales, who is expecting to be able to; including despite the boundaries that its His own Constitution and even through a plebiscite result. The old ideas of "loom for everything" are more likely than ever before, although a "botanic" bottle "is a reality of the voters that affect to pull out the economic crisis. For now, in all polls, including the public opinion survey that I am working with Alessio-IROL every month, it is proven that there is a good picture of at least 30% of the society of Cristina. Although the level of conviction is still high, "the economic crisis is making the journey more difficult and we will expand our electorate," one of his lieutenants confirmed confidently.

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Melconian just says that the economic revival will not come in time to improve the election elections in Cambiemos. On the other hand, the nature of his / her political process may occur; to kill him. The "Dujovne teaching" turned to Boomerang: the Government itself would have a real political responsibility. In August 2017 the complex panorama was the result of Cristina being a competitor in the senatorial elections. If the same thing in 2019 happens in the election of a president, changes in political representation would have a financial earthquake; Long-term presidential continuation process before primary schools: the markets will move forward. The disturbance would prevent the bays and stocks, which affect the & # 39; so bad economic activity. This is the worst situation for Macri, which warns too late the error will continue to last; policing with the old government.

Can the other happen? If Cristina does not grow and Macri is going to grow; confirming that it would improve the value of the property and that it would be; accelerating the revival, and increasing the Changes' comments. It is just the hope that comes out around its President capable of his / her. cause that case to be valid. It's a big question to be & # 39; appears if Alternative Alternate is able to take advantage of the high degree of refusal Macri and Cristina have. How will you put enough strategy seductive and broadly with the help of unfavorable electors, unhappy and brutal with the emergency? It is a narrow and windy glen. If he is making a competitive selection offer and displayed as an option for change, part of the Kirchner vote is essential in the second round. If the governing party is opposing each other and that its & # 39; final against the CFK face, it should bring its smaller parts. Hopeful to look too much for the most experienced Peronai.

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