Between AMLO and Bolsonaro, the markets choose Brazilian



In the last three months, Mexico became a star from Latin America to become The country with the largest uncertainty in the department, as long as Brazil, who started on & # 39; year with very little support from investors, now trail pole for the main cities.

The two changes have changed the two countries as a result of their next president. In Mexico, clerk Andrés Manuel López Obrador was reluctant to rely on a megaproject of a new airport, long-term; Jair Bolsonaro, a long-lived Roman Catholic and an old Catholic, influenced financial markets with an orthodox economic plan. including privatization.

Capital flows into scheduled assets or ETFs, which is a group of different organizations in both countries, are a faithful term of choice. According to information from Bloomberg, Mexico recorded a total of 113 million dollars in three months of this type of instrument, while Brazil entered 1,171 million.

The differences in each market are obvious. For example, in the exchange, The Mexican penalty fell against the dollar 6.42 per cent in that time, as long as the actual 8.14 per cent.

The analyst's vision is that suggestion follow these motions forward, as the performance of financial markets is linked to the growth of the economy.

"The new voluntary guidance (in the Brazilian government) should open up the opportunities for faster economic growth, specially driven by the largest investment, "said Emy Shayo Cherman, a strategy for JPMorgan for Brazil."The investments have been very tough and have a lot of room for lower-cost environmental growth for companies, comparatively low respect levels and commercial opening. "

On that same bank, the view of Mexico is not so happy. "We recognize that there is an impact on political accessibility that affects my mind and reinforces risk prices over Mexico," Mr explained. Cristiani, the strategist of JPMorgan for Mexico. "The AMLO may launch this & # 39; its impact on valuing and running to a current, where comparisons with historical multiples are superb."

In the reservoir of JPMorgan for Latin America in 2019, the bank praises "buy" in Brazil, as long as he was in Mexico he was "neutral".

There is also a division in stock markets. The S & P / BMV Mexican IPC 22.38 per cent fell in three months, measured in dollars, at the same time as the Brazilian department rose 22.93 per cent.

Block of owners

According to a survey by the American Bank Merrill Lynch, Brazil's elections will change all republics, because most investors have a expects that Ibovespa will close the year over 95 thousand points. These levels would benefit just over 8 per cent compared to current levels.

In debt market, investors also have different treatment. The 10-year-old dollars in dollars at the Brazilian government decrease to 48 basic points In the last three months, while they were in Mexico they rose 56 points over the same period.

The above ones are because investors have started asking for high quality & # 39; higher for Mexican debt against a greater risk seen. The increase in the risk of this increase is the level of interest.

"So far, the new administrative politics (Meagsago) has been hostile to its market and uncertainty. In this new political environment, our vision of macroeconomic mistakes and Mexicans' assets are still aware, "said Jorge Mariscal, a director of the market investment office that works at UBS.


Source link