The rehearsal is based on two views: maintaining low-level levels and including the output department of registered companies in 2019.
The CFG Bank research department has just published its annual notes on the Casablanca market. Investigation of its well-researched investigation by which bank analysts; Comment on market behavior in 2018, but to # 39; Delivering the forecast for the year 2019.
A year who will know "small revival", they estimate, with a performance of between 1 and 5%.
This rehearsal is built on two opinions:
1. Maintaining levels at lower levels; at present;
2. The level reformed level of the profitability base in 2019 at 3%, after a year in 2018 is expected to be marked by a slight decrease of more than 2%.
Al-Maghrib's bank will not go to the main stage
According to CFG Research, it is unlikely that rates will rise on the cash markets and any banners that will soon come. And they will stay at their current level, historically low.
Stability of public finances, together with limited inflation and comfortable foreign exchange resources, requires current levels of interest at low levels, according to bank surveys.
"There seems to be no further reduction in the policy level over the next few months, as soon as the growth of loans to the non-financial sector should be sustainable in 2019 and should Inflation rates continue to be medium-term in mid-time and according to Bank-Al-Maghrib's price sustainability objectives, "a & # 39; definition of a research document
He said that "the middle-class still (though enhancing) is not the economic revival and beliefs that advocate for the accumulation of financial situations and the increase in the main level. In addition, continuous improvement of our public finances and the substantial strengthening of our exchange resources from 2013 to maintain current levels at their current levels. "
The loyalty contribution to 1.2 billion biases on profits is high
Another argument arguing in accordance with CFG Bank for the return of the market: its company development profits registered in 2019.
According to the prejudice made by CFG Research teams, the profits of the rating must fall into 2018, before they start in 2019.
Following a 3.8% decline recorded in the first half of 2018, the total profit reduction is expected to be 2.1% on its full year, according to estimates to # 39; bank.
In terms of volume, the profits of the fall rates must be MAD 659 million compared to 2017. This move will be ratified by 31 March when the companies are registered on their accounts.
But the best remains to come according to CFG, since these profits will start up to a new level for 2019, with an increase of 2.9% assessment.
"By replacing a social loyalty grant that will be introduced in 2019 (2.5% of the preferential product), the profit growth would increase to 6.7% depending on our estimates, "analysts at his & # 39; bank.
Its impact is & # 39; This close fee introduced by the 2019 budget law is estimated at 1.2 billion euros.
The PE of the place between 18 and 19 times profits
These projections inform BID monitors that the market should have a 20 temperature process of the expected profits. A BHE of balance that will not be deducted according to them.
"With the uncertainty that should be involved in the short term, internationally and locally, the market should continue to be at PE between 18x and 19x by the end of the year, where our estimation has a further increase in the browser from 1% to 5% ", they want to clarify.
Comparatively high value compared to other areas of the region, but this must be a CFG qualification due to low capital cost in Morocco, with low historical levels (3.3% for BDT 10 years) and current high level of risk at 4.9%.