The continued decrease in oil prices, which has fallen so rapidly from the high 52-week situation in October that $ 1 trillion has been erased from energy stocks, it deeply engages into pockets of key agents such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Nigeria and Angola. How does the world come into an "unprecedented time" in oil markets, however, not just OPEC members who will be able to access the market. suffer. Even non-natural countries that rise to a reduction in oil rent, such as Malaysia and Canada, are more vulnerable than bills; The current oil price accident is currently due to poor policy work.
As early as October early, Brent's crude trade was at almost $ 87 per barrel, among a $ 100 barrel forecast. Since then, the device has been experiencing an unexpected running of losing. At the same time, when the demand is simultaneously impacting, and oil is now valuable at almost half of what it was about two months ago, after it's going to & # 39; record the largest one-day drop in three years.
The estimated reduction in supplies moved by American sanctions on Iran's oil has failed, with the Trump administration unwilling to donate grants for eight countries, and # 39 ; including key China and India importers. Worried, this abundance in supply may only contain about 15% of the current price, and the rest is caused by a demand that is tied to calm economies .
OPEC under pressure
Because the business is breathing it up on 6 DecemberthA meeting is to consolidate raw prices, a significant demand is far greater than external provision, since OPEC countries have no direct control over it. Indeed, OPEC is considered to be responsible for just 15 per cent of global increase in oil production between October 2017 and October 2018, and has several of its largest members; struggling to break down: de facto quarterly leader Saudi Arabia needs $ 70 at an average price just to balance the books. OPEC countries are less pronounced: Nigeria and Angola, for example, are responsible for doubt for over 80% of their exports.
There were other markets that were at risk
It is not surprising that the emerging markets with GDP are dependent on oil; Unfortunately suffering when small prices fall. Countries that are being analyzed are smaller, but just as they are disturbing, countries that are left alone in oil reduction through their own policy options rather than enough resources petroleum Associated: Trader Oleag Sgeulachdach expects high prices to be brought back
For example, after years of destroying petroleum autonomy, Malaysia has recently been threatened by the oil price crash, with dangerous policy conclusions from Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Since the 93-year-old supervisor got into the headquarters in May, Kuala Lumpur has hit £ 3 billion in foreign investment over being aware that he continues to Continue with the controversial economic policies that were in place. First time marked as PM from 1981 to 2003.
Mahathir has not expressed these concerns by selling a service and goods service (GST) tax up to 20% of government finance. Malaysian finance officers have been able to build out that the GST has been abolished, emphasizing that the previous government had been in its position; to establish a tax to reduce the country's dependence on petroleum and to excavate the economy of Maltese out of its case in another oil price accident.
The 2019 Mahathir expansion budget counted on an oil rent to bend the hole by eliminating the GST. Unfortunately, this plan needed to remedy Petronas state and state oil for a remarkable, unique introduction – a suggestion that Moody had to do. outlining Petronas' s vision to abusive – and took a $ 72 Brent price in a barrel – a figure that was less than a month after the release of the budget, it is a dangerous danger.
Prime Minister Malay Najib Razak has given his budget, stating his administration had been on his / her behalf; designing its finances around a low oil price of $ 18 below the global level of resources: "if the conditions are better, we get bonus. If it's worse, we would have prepared already done ". Le Brent brushes $ 60 and Petronas to # 39; slowing down Malayis stock exchange, Mahathir's administration may not regret without being prepared like that.
Canada's casual infrastructure problems
Malaysia is not the first lead director. on politics that have severely lost his country; unnecessarily opened to oil market capabilities. Bottlenecks have been built in Alberta for many years when more oil from Athabasca oil sand is more than the pipers; There is already a lawsuit that has not been addressed by the Liberal government Justin Trudeau.
Trudeau carried out a dangerous bid to remove the Eastgate pipeline that supports the Trans Mountain project, The problem of what petroleum material comes out of Alberta. The PM was retired in August, when the Canadian Federal Court of Appeal prevented him from building on Trans Mountain. With the Keystone XL and Energy East project also outdoors – they may have been political reasons rather than concerns about profits – Trudeau was left against her; Depression declines and increasingly emerging oil crisis in the richest Canadian province. Related: A unique picture of provision
Ottawa does not appear to see a pipe project to finish its & # 39; means that there is a huge amount of water in Canada and not being given it, which allows Canadian representatives to be in & # 39; oil sales at casualties. This is a very bad problem when global prices are already going down. Canada's oil dropped recently $ 13.46 per barrel, the best holiday around the world.
The difference between Canadian and global oil prices means Alberta has a " Losing $ 100 million per day, loss not only preventing future investment in the & # 39; business, but affecting the entire economy of the country. Under the Canadian revenue share system, Ottawa accounts are about $ 22 billion from Alberta full-wave for distribution to the most prosperous areas.
Stormy waters ahead
Canada's chests have a huge degree of global oil prices; falling, unfinished in looking at the situation. The US broadcasting output expects to reach registration rates next month and its; continue until the 2020s – although America has blocked its problems on its own pipeline – the continued oil supply supply can be suspended in the future come.
The incredible revival of oil prices from the final accident in 2016 allowed oil producers, both inside and outside OPEC, to breathe in your memories. Unfortunately, he also gave countries such as Malaysia and Canada's leading room to follow up policies that left the danger; nevertheless.
Le Richard Talley for Oilprice.com
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