Recovery of the dollar to 40 pesos would affect the decline of rates and prevent inflation in December


The dollar started back at the beginning of the week. After climbing 3.6%, yesterday closed at a $ 40 banking and exchange houses. At Banco Nación, which usually has the best price, it ended at $ 39.90. Although the money returned to levels that were shown in early October, nobody will find that this new product will have an impact on other variations, although it is necessary to see how long & # 39; it is.

The increase in the dollar will be done Gasoline is almost impossible to decline in December. It was a case; which delighted the government greatly because it could also help to reduce its inflation in December. The oil companies were confident, but they were not ruled as a result of the sharp accident in oil prices.

But if you have previously submitted them, now they'll keep out directly on any reduction. It will also be essential to assess if the change of exchange rate increases inflammatory. It is true that a & # 39; Most of the inductors have changed their calculations with $ 40 dollars, but certainly not all cases should. And on the other hand, no one is in a position to check where he can stop. That is said if there is a peak of the roof even though it is temporary.

The inflation in November would be closer to 2.8%, but no one could not return the next month to levels of 3%, something to do; which causes a very negative psychological beat to expectations.

The exchange yield will be a great deal at the level of the flat. In recent weeks the results of Leliq (short-term securities issued by the BCRA), which were away from the area, were 73.50% annually in early October to just over 61% at the end of Last week, to fall. . It will be difficult then to break this floor, because the risk of the dollar demand is faster. Leliq was rated from an average level of 61.4% to 61.23%, between Friday and yesterday, that is, it continued, even though it was worse.

The BCRA's approach is to influence the level that includes more opportunities or, as in December, Provide less than what is seen in the agreement with the IMF. Both options would help to maintain the high level and stop the dollar. However, this is the consequence of the impact; The economic regeneration could be delays.

The jump was astonished at her; Most economists and the financial world. Although almost everyone was talking about a & # 39; stay cautious, many did not expect them to know how big & The days were gone. With the rally yesterday, the money now has a 9.6% increase accumulation from the early floor in November, when it was located in the area of ​​$ 36.40.

Why was the exchange rate "awakening"? There are several reasons that occur when it comes to & # 39; gives some explanation. But in the last times there were several examples about it. One of the questions that are definitely have their effects; Lebac rescue last week, which meant the $ 45,000 million was introduced. The Finance Department, through the establishment of new bills in pesos, has taken around $ 35,000 million. It is reasonable to think that almost everything was going to buy money-buying at a time; passing.

But besides that, there are other aspects that play. Reliability of investors is seen at the risk of the country, and then another step has been completed over 680 points. The dollar's connections dropped again and Bonar 2024 lost, for example, over 2% and already yielding 11.3% annually in dollars.

This uncertainty that shows weakness also makes the bands a & # 39; affecting the exchange rate. In October, the situation of the incident occurred. Reduced the country's risk, coupled with a drop in the exchange rate.

Some also linked the suspicion that stopped the finalists of the Libertadores Cup from being able to. take place. The state of affairs of the community and the government that began to cause the Buenos Aires city to worry about investors left. To make matters worse, many private banking practitioners from Miami and New York traveled to see the game. No doubt they did not return with their best idea.

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