Friday, April 12, 2019 – 8:00 AM
UPDATES Friday, April 12, 2019 – 3:18 PM
It seems that SINGAPORE started the year that has successfully delivered the wrong track, with economic flash data reaching lower than market expectations in the first quarter.
The overall household result (GDP) grew 1.3 per cent in the first three months of 2019, according to estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Friday morning.
Private economies had taken more lead in raising 1.4 per cent of GDP in the Bloomberg vote.
In any case, the tragic acceleration is making it the worst fourth in Singapore from the height of the international financial crisis in 2009.
There has been a quarter-rise from the emissions 1.9 which was recorded in the last three months in 2018, but it has identified a 2 per cent increase on a quarter which has been updated quarterly.
In the story of two divisions, the Singapore performance department – which accounts for about one fifth of economy – has fallen into a state of disrepair after having developed quarterly since mid-2016. , and rebuilding takes place in black after 10 months of decline.
Manufacturing was down 1.9 per cent in the fourth, compared with an increase of 5.1 per cent in the previous three months, with the MTI stating that the result of reduced engineering and an electronics could not be saved by growth in manufacturing. T biomedical and transport engineering.
On a quarterly basis, adjusted by season, the cut outs doubled to 12 per cent, much wider than a previous 2.7 per cent decrease.
Joseph Incalcaterra, the Associate key economist for HSBC Bank, was not alone in looking at bad news against manufacturing from the factory numbers in March, saying "it is likely that bad unauthorized activities will continue." over a short period of time as external demand remains weak ”. t
“Stability indicators of Chinese growth will help regional exports, but we believe that productivity gains will continue to be under pressure with the continuing movement down in global distribution sheets,” he said.
Conversely, there was a resurgence of growth of 1.4 per cent year on year, and its seasonal expansion increased to 7.8 per cent, up from 5.1 per cent in the previous three months. The MTI said the recovery was 'supported by development in the private sector building activities', although other viewers were of mixed interest that a sustainable regeneration could bring. how infrastructure projects passing may meet the residential property market. cleaning measures.
At the same time, some services grew by 2.1 per cent per annum in the first quarter, better than the growth of 1.8 per cent recorded in the previous quarter. It also increased by 4.8 per cent on a quarterly basis, against a 2.8 per cent development in three months by the end of 2018.
The growth of services was largely the result of the information and communication sectors and business services, according to the MTI.
Among the ambitions from a relatively modest rate of economic growth, the central bank in Singapore retained its Singapore import policy at the same time in its half-yearly statement on Friday morning.
“Over the last six months, the impact of the manufacturing sector on GDP's growth has declined, reflecting the collapse and economic recession of the earth's electronic circle in China”, said the Singapore Finance Authority. T these were not recited.
However, he added that “some parts of the service area – including the financial industries, business services and technological services – are expected to continue to benefit from a stable domestic demand in the area and more. investment in digitization ”.
Citi's Kit Wei Zheng Kit and Ang Kai Wei seemed to agree, writing that “organizations in connection with trade should be enticed with pockets within services, on the terms). regional domestic demand. ”
However, economists Chua Hak Bin and Lee Ju Ye from Maybank Kim Eng have, however, hoped to grow growth in other services industries. Growth in weaker loans and the trading of bourse could also place pressure on finance and insurance, and by reducing tourism numbers it will charge accommodation and food services, suggesting them.
Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, argued in the morning that the services industries depended primarily on trade and manufacturing and said: “In addition, the cooling operations of the building draw on it. real mortgage and estate services activity to impact on overall service activity. ”
Reflecting the face of global trade struggle and geopolitical risks, he said: “It is quite absolute to say that the economy has surely gone down. ”
Tan Khay Boon, senior lecturer at SIM in the World, also described the vision for the next three months.
“The electronic collection isn't out of the woods yet, and there's an increase in medium-sized biomass manufacturing,” said Dr Tan. “Insufficiently enough to build capacity so that the sector has sufficient growth.
“Growth must be helped by the services sector, which requires strong employment and controlled inflation to generate domestic demand. ”
Selena Ling, head of Finance and Asset Management at the OCBC Bank, raised doubts about whether there would be a sufficient finish to 2019 to generate an economic weakness in the first six months.
“So that we can see a clear rationale and subsequent development in China and growth opportunities worldwide, the whole picture for the Singapore economy is very careful,” she said.
Despite an incredible renaissance, some economists have claimed a renaissance – including Mohamed Faiz Nagutha at Merrill Lynch, who clicked on the Register of Sellers Purchase in March.
Projected figures for GDP are largely based on information from January and February, and can be changed in full, to be published at May 24.
The Government has reaffirmed its previous forecast forecasts between 1.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent for 2019, while standing out to “a little below”. T that level of that range.
In addition, the International Finance Fund has published its global fare for the third time in six months on Tuesday, to an increase of 3.3% in the world economy.