A day of financial problems was a day on Wednesday (27). The Ibovespa, the main stock index of stock exchange, completed the day with a loss of 3.6%; and the value of the commercial dollar rose by 2.2% to the actual value, at the end of the day. The highest value of the dollar is in nearly six months, from 1 October 2018.
According to market analysts heard by BBC News Brazil, the findings reveal political tributes between the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), and the government of Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) – here the week – and when the plenary canceled the government, allowing a recommendation to release funding for the proposed initiatives t changes which the representatives and grandparents attended and put into the budget. As well as that, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said yesterday that he could stop it if he has no political support from the government.
More: Bolsonaro: We must solve our benefits;
Bolsonaro and Rodrigo Maia exchanged through the media throughout the Wednesday.
In an interview with TV presenter José Luiz Datena, TV Bandeirantes, Bolsonaro said Maia "was inspired by personal issues that have been a reality in his life, the personal things that are going through his mental state t was at this time. "
The phrase was understood as mentioning custody, last Thursday, from the old minister Moreira Franco – he is married to Maia's wife. After that Bolsonaro refused to attack Rodrigo Maia and said that his hand was always extended. "They are making a storm in a glass of water," he said.
Later, in an interview with reporters in the Chamber, Maia responded to Bolsonaro. He says that the reserve is "trying to steer" Brazil.
"12 million workless, 15 million Brazilian live under the poverty line, are reducing the Brazilian state's investment, 60,000 kills and the president said a struggle to take control of Brazil," said the factor. .
See also: Flávio Rocha states that Bolsonaro must change the style of regulation and regulation
A political analyst at the XP Investimentos disruption, Paulo Gama says that this week's events have increased increasing expectations for a Pension Reform agreement – which may be featured in a market behavior.
"It is worrying that the relationship between the government and Transport is in decline, as the future of the pension reform is being questioned, which the prime minister Paulo Guedes will handle as central. Tell Gama to BBC News Brazil.
"It was hoped that things would move in positive, unstable but positive leadership, but instead we had four different events going on last week," said Gama.
He notes that the decline of opinion polls is showing a decline in the population of President Bolsonaro; Hosting President Michel Temer, and then presentations by government supporters of the “old politics”; the Armed Forces reform project, which had a negative impact on Transport; and exchanges of gap between the Minister for Justice Sérgio Moro and Rodrigo Maia.
According to analysis and political scientist Rafael Cortez of Tendências Consultoria Integrada, market movement responds to what is known as "market repatriation" in the market flag: investors are changing company stock prices. Brazilian after reviewing the risks in the country's economy.
“Since Bolsonaro was elected, there is hopeful hope on the economic agenda. The general view was that pension reform would be due to the emerging political framework (from the election), "he says."
"It was thought that the opponents would be out of the electoral division and the new government strong." This assessment has been included in the price of the property at that time. a new government, the market responds by changing the prices of these assets (sectors), "said Cortez.
Government spending in the House
On Wednesday, the Chamber of Representatives agreed to a proposal for Constitution change (PEC) which requires the federal government to release money for funding in budgets for changes that were made. down by the band – individuals are already compulsory.
The process was much faster than usual. Called the "Tax Budget PEC", the proposal was approved by 448 votes to 3 in the first round of voting and 453 votes to 6 in the second.
The financial impact should be limited, as it has to cope with the expenditure incurred in 2016, but the market has become a new indication of the weakening of the government, increasing the risk of re-licensing. pension development.
Today, around 93% of Government costs are on the Budget "link" as defined by Congress in the previous year. With the PhEC, the sum would increase to 97%. If it receives permission this year, it will complete the following year.
Therefore, it is estimated that the Government would have a role to move in just R $ 45 billion of costs among the total budget of R $ 1.4 trillion. To give you an idea, the government was planning to freeze $ 30 billion this year to avoid the growth of prophecy.
An examination by the IFI (the Independent Fiscal Institute), linked to the Assembly, thought that the proposal's impact was R $ 7.3 billion (nominal values), from 2020 to 2022, and would be subject to a negative t not keeping to the surface of the expenditure. According to Daniel Veloso, Felipe Salto and Gabriel Leal de Barros, in 2021 the government's estimated forecast R $ 69.5 billion would be the lowest appropriate costs between R $ 75 billion and R $ 80 billion. "The tax budget promotion threatens to comply with the tax regulation, because it is reducing the amount of freedom in the implementation of the Budget," said the survey.
Government also lost one of the key negotiating instruments with the producers.
Today, parliamentary changes are compulsory, but general (or benches) changes depend on government approval. The level it is expected to take as a place to move financially before fiscal finance or the exchange rate to support in conference votes will be important, for example.
"The big difference is the fact that the government has lost, not losing its decision, becoming more plentiful, with more difficulty in mainstreaming its budget and budget." reduce the financial deficit (estimated by R $ 139 billion this year), "said Juliana Inhasz, professor and graduate coordinator in Insper economics.
For Inhasz, the PEC vote also shows that “the government doesn't have as much power as it thinks. ”As a result, it would be more than expected to accept the Pension reform, reducing the financial impact.
Paulo Guedes visits and receives Congress
The Wednesday Economic Issues Committee (CAE) of the Senate was Minister for Economy, Paulo Guedes, to address defense speakers on Social Security reform.
Guedes said the country has to make pension reforms capable of saving $ $ 1 trillion, or removes the next generation without pensions. The minister compared the current system with an airplane – and said that if he or she has no government support for reform, it can table it.
"If the president supports the things I think I can do to get to Brazil, I'll be here." I have life outside here. I came to help, I think I have some interesting ideas. The president does not want, Congress does not want. I think I'm struggling to stay here. "If nobody wants the service, it'll be a pleasure to be able to try," said Guedes.
He decided not to be "undesirable" and "irresponsible" to leave "in the beginning."
A Guedes expedition to the Assembly followed a further meeting held on Tuesday (26), on the Constitutional Commission and the Justice of the Chamber (CCJ). Guedes was criticized for turning his previous meeting back to the Assembly.
"You've delayed three times," said the committee chairman Omar Aziz (PSD-AM) to Guedes.
It was agreed to appear at House next Wednesday (3).
In nearly four hours of listeners, Guedes stressed the importance of reform.
“The demographic pyramid is turning to diamonds, it's already turned (by the majority of people of the middle age). .
"When I say we need at least $ 1 1 trillion (to launch the capitalization system), we are responsible for future generations. T "conviction for children and grandchildren of our self-confidence, as we cannot make sacrifice amongst themselves," he said. "The introduction of the new Benefits system will not be possible with the capitalization system.
The minister then started using aircrew errors to deal with the matter. According to Guedes, Social Security is "an aircraft falling down".
“We don't take anything away from anyone, it's optional, who wants to stay in the old system, and who wants to stay in the new system, you're not asking only your child. If you like, I think it is good for you, going on that other trip here, another place. You have control of your own, you are going in the other way. "The safe, democracy democracy, you are giving this young person the investment potential," he said.