The Central Bank is worried about identifying: A risk will continue



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The Central Bank, minutes of the Monthly Policy Committee (PPK) Committee meeting were published. The minutes from the meeting found that the board decided to maintain a strict financial standstill until there was a lot of progress in inflation.

It is confirmed that there may be further pressure on need.
Although the recent high-rise course in Turkish Lira and weak domestic demand conditions supported the collapse in inflation, there was a growing emphasis on the accumulated cost of curbing a more favorable view.

The CBRT statement follows:

IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS

"1. In February, customers' prices rose by 0.16 per cent and annual inflation fell by 0.68 per cent to 19.67 per cent, with annual reductions in sub-groups, except for an energy company. an average energy source in inflation in an energy exchange rate has been less weakened in the demand home ,. this decline in inflation was still high, in line with these developments, there had been a reduction in annual inflation in the key hyper-inflation targets, but the fundamental trend remained low, but lowered by inflation; In general, the small course recently undertaken in the Turkish lilac and weak domestic applications supports a reduction in consumer inflation, while it is still lower. the exact cost barriers limiting a more definitive.
2. Annual inflation of food and non-alcoholic drinks decreased by 1.72 percentage points to 29.25 per cent in February. The food group processed and involved in the process was added to the decline; inflation at these groups was 20.18 per cent and 39.07 per cent, respectively. Although the reduction in annual inflation by a non-processed food group was largely driven by new fruit and vegetable prices, annual inflation in this sub-group remained at 59.75 per cent.

GROWTH AND GROWTH GROWTH

3. Energy companies' prices rose by 0.75 per cent in February and an annual inflation rate rose by 1.51 points to 14.57 per cent. In this development oil and cylinder gas prices were behind the rise in international energy prices.

4. The annual main products declined by 1.53 points to 21.22 per cent. During this time, progress in annual inflation has spread across sub-groups. While declining prices of goods have continued to decline, weak domestic outfits and decreasing shoes due to weak domestic demand conditions. In other main products, the monthly price increase was still weak. To give a sum, the average course of inflation in the last period followed the Turkish liles course and the course was slow for domestic demand.
5. Service prices increased by 0.58 per cent in February, after a slight increase in January. The annual inflation rate fell by 0.26 points to 15.14 per cent, therefore. There was an annual AGM in the lettings group and it declined in another sub-group. During this period, the average restaurant price was rising significantly at the same time as a food level outlook. The annual inflation rate in transport services is reduced by demand, driven by land prices and air transport. Despite a slow course in the circumstances of domestic demands, inflation was maintaining services at a high level due to cost and reversal factors.

INFORMATION TO BE TAKEN ON

6. The data recently shows that the trend for economic sustainability is becoming more evident. Although business output decreased in the last quarter of 2018 compared to the third quarter, it is noted that the increase in economic activity along with the indicators relating to the services and construction sectors are dispersed across the UK. of the sectors. Despite a slowdown in domestic and import demand, net export continued to contribute to seasonal and year-on-year growth in the final fourth, driven by exports of goods and demand. T Strong tourism.
7. Slow economic activity is the result of financial constraints. The increase in public spending, contributing to tax cuts on sustainable goods, and a credit book are considered to support average refurbishment of domestic demand in the first quarter.

DOES ACHIEVE THE CURRICULUM IN EXTENDED TO

8. Despite the progress on global growth, particularly in the EU countries, overseas demand remains strong. Due to the decrease in domestic demand, company disruption is shifting to foreign markets and market diversification flexibility supports freight exports. delay the impact of exchange rate, loans and reductions in economic activity affecting an inward demand; The development of the outward balance continues rapidly with the demand for tourism. The development is intended to continue in the present balance of the census.

9. Labor market data confirms that there is a decline in economic activity. According to the data in October-December 2018, non-agricultural employment declined compared to the third quarter, largely in the construction phase, and unemployment rates continued to rise.

FINANCE AND RELATIONSHIPS POLICY

10. In the period after the previous MPC meeting, the loss of momentum in global economic activity led to the tendency for people to feel in the growth of Europe. In this context, global growth projections for 2019 have been revised down. The downtimes that follow in foreign trade contribute to the determination of global economic policies and the dangers of growth in global economic growth. -world.
11. The threats towards global inflation continue to rise in line with a favorable view in developed countries' employment markets. On the other hand, global warming is expected to be relatively medium over the coming period as a result of a weak movement in global growth vision and an energy price course.

COLLEGE REPLACEMENT IN GROWTH GLOBAL

12. As the loss of progress in global growth became more pronounced, the prospect of a monetary policy position in developed countries had decreased slightly compared with the previous PPK time. This position is positive in relation to streams of packages to developing countries; however, overall uncertainty in global economic policies and global financial risks continues to pose risks to park flows.
13. Bait symptoms have improved slightly as a result of imported input and improvements on domestic demand. High levels of abdomen and expectation of inflation, as well as the course of costs and uncertainty in terms of price behavior, continue to present risks over the future inflation. In this framework, the Committee decided that it would maintain strict financial standing until there had been a lot of progress in inflation, and it maintained the one-week monetary rate, which is a policy level for t 24%.

ADDITIONAL ASSESSMENT ACCESS

14. The Central Bank will continue to use all the devices in their hands according to the key price reasons. Expectations of income, price trends, weak impact on monetary policy decisions, contributing to fiscal policy for the balancing process and improvements in other factors affecting inflation will be analyzed in t Accuracy and detail can be given where necessary.

15. In establishing a monetary policy stance, the vision for fiscal policy includes a policy position coordinated by monetary policy, focusing on price sustainability and macro-economic balance. Therefore, it is assumed that the managed / managed and tax changes are certified to help reduce the recent index of inflation index. If the fiscal policy is avoided significantly from the framework identified and which affects the medium-term vision, the position of the fiscal policy may be updated.

16. Attempts to co-ordinate cash policy and fiscal policy are expected to structurally and systematically improve price sustainability. In addition, continuing structural measures to reduce resilience and change in inflation will significantly increase the sustainability of prices and thus social success.

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