The first sunshine test will be An experiment to prove the cool ground


Zhen Dai, Frank Keutsch, and David Keith

Frank Keutsch, Zhen Dai and David Keith (left to right) at the Keutsch laboratory at Harvard University.Cliù: Kayana Szymczak for Nature

Zhen Dai is holding a small glass tube covered with white powder: calcium carbonate, I think it's all used in paper from each paper and a grate to a dance shower and cake mix. Include a record of it in water, and it is a product containing a knife antidote that will be used; stomach stretching. The question is for Dai, a doctoral application at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and his colleagues whether this unsupported material also helps with humanity to relieve the last problem of a problem : global warming caused by greenhouse pollution.

The simple idea is: press several grain into the stratosphere, and they'll cool to & # 39; planet by thinking of some of the sun rays into space. Scientists have already been able to see the principle of action. When Mount Pinatubo sank in the Philippines in 1991, it placed around 20 million tonnes of sulfur into the stratosphere – the atmosphere that extends from about 10 to 50 kilometers above Earth surface. The collapse of a sulfate fragrant fragments of its planet created about 0.5 ° C. For about 18 months, the Earth's average temperature returned to the previous before the steam engine came.

The idea is that people may Turn the Earth's thermostat by using similar methods, a number of decades. It links to a wider class of plan refrigeration schemes called geoengineering that has long been a bigger debate and, in some cases, fears.

Researchers have been significantly restricted to their work on computer modes. Among the worries, maybe a reduction in the Sun would be back, or at least disadvantaged some areas of the world by, for example, sun crops and water patterns.

But as emissions continue to grow and climate projections are still poor, discussions on geoengineering research Starting to attract more among scientists, policy makers and some environmentalists. That is because many researchers have come to an overwhelming decision that the only way to prevent the deteriorating effects of global warming is to be the same; pull as much carbon dioxide out of the air or make its cold planet free. No, maybe more likely, both.

If everything is planned, Harvard is the first man in the world that moves sunlight from the talk and into the stratosphere, with a project with the known as Stratospheric Management Disorder (SCoPEx). First-rate – US $ 3 million probation may including two 20-kilometer steamer balloon aircraft over the southwest of the United States – was launched as early as the first half of 2019. Whenever it was a place, the test would allow Small plateau of calcium carbonate, each of about 100 grams, equals the amount found in a standard anticide bottle off-shelf. The balloon then turned to show how the fragments are spread.

The test itself is very fond of. Dai, who has a doctorate work over the last four years has been trying to build a tabletop to do & # 39; symbolize and quantify chemical revision in the stratosphere before the test starts, which does not stress the concerns of that research. "I'm studying chemicals," she says. "It's probably not a nuclear bomb."

Despite this, the test is a # 39; The first one flying under the sun's biodiversity. And so it is strictly monitored, which includes some environmental groups, which say that these efforts are a dangerous draw-in from doing so; addressing the same permanent solution for climate change: a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. It is not a real cause in the scientific result of SCoPEx, says Jim Thomas, executive director of the ETC group, an environmental advocacy agency in Val-David, near Montreal, Canada, which faces geoengineering: "This is so much a test changing social media and going over a line because it's a science laboratory."

A sense of attention, the team has a moving slowly and works to control the test, in the form of an external advisory committee to review the project. Some say that such a frame, which can be the location of the future for future exams, is even more important than the result of this test. "SCoPEx is the first out of its gateway, and it promotes important dialogue, guidance and independent guidance," said Peter Frumhoff, leading scientist the climate of the Science Scientists Union in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and an independent panel member who was expressed by choosing the head of the advisory committee. "It's more important than doing it better than doing it fast."

Arms to come together

In many ways, the stratosphere is a good place to try the atmosphere to be more reflective. Small crannogs can throw the rubbish spread around the world and stay for two or more years. If they were applied strategically and consistently in both sides, they could create a comparable single-fold blanket that would; protect the whole planet (see Globalization & # 39;). Their process does not have to be very expensive; In the last month's report, the Inter-governmental Climate Change Panel recommended that a fleet of airplane aircraft could protect enough amounts to generate around 1.5 ° C of warming for around $ 1 billion to $ 10 billion per year1South Westerly

Paul Jackman /Nature

Most of the sun's geophysical research to date has focused on two-oxygen sulbhur, the same material that was distributed by Mount Pinatubo. But the best candidate may not be the disease. As well as cooling its & # 39; planet, the spirits created in that stream produced the amount of chlorofluorocarbons increasing the ozone cage, shielding its planet from ultraviolet chronic radiation; Sun. The Sun also warms up sulphate aeres, sufficiently to affect moisture movement and even the flow of fluid. "All of these effects are going to be underestimated," said Frank Keutsch, a Harvard-based chemist and SCoPEx chief inspector.

The SCoPEx team is disinfected by calcium carbonate focusing on, which is & # 39; expected to include heat less than sulfates and not to; less ozone effect. But textbooks answers – and even Dai's menu – can not capture the whole picture. "We do not know what it would do, because it's not in the stratosphere," said Keutsch. "That's the setting of a red flag."

SCoPEx aims to collect glossary data to resolve this. The test started as a partnership between the classic James Anderson pharmacist from Harvard and the proven physicist David Keith, who moved to university in 2011. Keith has been studying different geological options over 25 years. In 2009, as long as he was at Calgary University in Canada, he established his & Carbon Engineering company, in Squamish, who works to exchange technology to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. After going to Harvard, Keith used research funding received from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in Seattle, Washington, to start the planning of the test.

Keutsch, who has been involved later, is not a climate expert and a difficult geologist is very difficult. But he is worried about humanity; going on, and what that means for the children's future. When he saw Keith's talk about his & her; The idea of ​​SCoPEx at a conference after he was going to Harvard in 2015, he says he was a " The first thing he did was was "completely uncertain". Then he decided that it was a time. "I asked myself, air chemistry, what can I do?" He went with Keith and Anderson, and has been leading the test work.

Look at the sky

SCoPEx has already moved later than the previous sun geodiversity efforts. The Stratospheric UK Climate Engineering examinations for Climate Engineering, which were 1 kilometer for the atmosphere, were completed to the atmosphere, in 2012, due to the fact that scientists have submitted applications for a device which could affect everyone on his / her; planet. (Keith says there is no pattern on any technology that is involved in the SCoPEx project.) And US researchers have a Natural Cloud Exposure Project, which aims to be & # 39; spray seawater rays to the low level to increase ocean cloud thinking, trying to raise money for its project for nearly ten years.

An environmental room to test the instruments used in the SCoPEx range mission

Environmental room to test the instruments used in the SCoPEx range mission.Cliù: Kayana Szymczak for Nature

Although SCoPEx could have been the first pilot of a sea geo for flight, Keith says that other projects that have not been so shocked have already provided useful information. In 2011, for example, the Experiment Cloud Cloud Spray introduced into the low steam to migrate pollutants, which could be caused by clouds by catching more water steam . The test was used to investigate the impact on marine clouds, but the results of geophysical science had a direct impact: clouds were more acute and more; Refreshing effect is 50 times greater than the effects of cooling of the carbon emissions from the researchers' vessel2South Westerly

Keith says that Harvard's team is not yet meeting any other public or challenging complaints from a co-fuel hero at times. The challenge faced by researchers, he says, raises more from fear among scientific funding bodies that invest in geoengineering into environmental campaigns.

To help with the range, Keith hoped in 2016 to build $ 20 million to support a formal research program that would have been in place; Cover not only the experimental work, but also the study of model, regulation and belief. It has raised about $ 12 million to date, most of Gates Foundation and other filenthropies; the pot will provide funds for the money; Many people, largely part-time.

Keith and Keutsch also want an external advisory committee to review SCoPEx before going. The committee, which is still to be elected, will report to your engineering and vice provost for Harvard research. "We see this as part of a process to build wider support for research on this topic," said Keith.

Keutsch looks forward to going to & # 39; Getting directions from an outside body, and he hopes that he can give clarification on how experiments should take place. "This is a politically challenging test than I expected," he said. "I was a little naive."

SCoPEx also has technical challenges. It needs to spell items of the right size: the team counts that those with a diameter of about 0.5 micrometers should spread and be able to; show sunlight. The balloon also has to be able to turn the course into the thin sky so that it can go through the opening. Because the team is able to locate their carbonate carbonate – and there is no guarantee that they can – SCoPEx needs instruments that can be used. Analyzing the fragments and, hoping, carrying beams back to Earth.

"It will be a great test, and probably not work," said David Fahey, a national expert at the National Ocean Administration and Inflation at Boulder, Colorado. With the hope that this will do so, the Fahey team on SCoPEx has been given with a highly reliable lightweight device and the number of items that are released. A laser machine also has a cell phone that can monitor the & # 39; old woman from last. Other equipment may also collect information about the level of humidity and ozone in the srathosphere to turn on a balcony.

Up to the stratosphere

Keutsch and Keith are still working out some of the technical details. There were plans with one balloon company through, so they are now working with a second. And an independent team of equipment in California is working on options for bankruptcy. In order to make simple things, the SCoPEx group aims to fly late in the spring or autumn, when stratospheric winds can be used; move to steering and – for a short time – slow down, making it easier to keep track of the device.

For all of these reasons, Keutsch identifies its & # 39; First flying as an engineering test, especially to show everything works properly. The team is ready to spray fragments of calcium carbonate, instead they can use salt water to determine the spray if the advisory committee aims.

Keith still believes that sulfate solutions can be the best option for sun geodeling in the case, if it is due to more research into their effects. He says that there should be less fewer future concerns that sulfates may increase the ozone reduction in the future, as efforts to restore the ozone layer through reduce pollution reductions going on. Despite this, it is a & # 39; It is a key driver to set up an experimental program in which scientists explore different aspects of solar geology.

There are lots of different questions. Some researchers have suggested that solar geodesign may change resolution patterns and even continue to dry more in some areas. Others warn that there is one of the potential benefits of solar geology – to be at # 39; Crop yields by protecting them from a heat illness – which may not occur. In a survey published in August, researchers found that fruit of corn (corn), soya, rice and wheat3 After two volcanic debris, Mount Pinatubo fell in 1991 and El Chichón in Mexico in 1982, which triggered the emulsion. Such reductions may be sufficient to prevent any potential future prospects.

Keith says that science so far suggests that the benefits may be much greater than their negative effects, especially in comparison to a world in which warmth a & # 39; going on. The deficiency that has been announced is usually the effect of a bleach on the Sun's emissions, and so greenhouse gas gauge would have its effect; growing up and its harbor became even acidic. But it is suggested that solar geodesign can reduce the level of carbon emissions; It may be possible to go up in the atmosphere, for example by using the # 39; reducing loss of loss, and stimulating forest growth and its; reducing the need for cool buildings. In a similar study, an unpublished publication of tighter effects and temperatures using a rectangular path model, Keith found and others that would benefit from almost all regions of the world from a moderate geophysical program. "Despite all the worries, we can not find any areas that would be much worse off," he said. "If solar engineering is as good as those shown in these modules, it would be sad to be not really impressive."

There is still some uncertainty about the state of science and the assumptions in the models – which include; The idea that humanity could come together to establish, to & # 39; maintain and then eliminate a well-designed and well-designed geophysical program; addressing the fundamental problem of the emissions. Despite this, there are clear, including the Royal Society of the United Kingdom and the US Science, Engineering and Medicine Sciences Academy, has required more research. In October, the project academy launched its commitment to providing a plan for such a program.

Some groups are already trying to promote debate among international policy makers and government officials. The Solar Security Determination Management Initiative holds workshops all over the world to the south, for example. And Janos Pasztor, who was the subject of a climate secretary under his general secretary, Northern Ban Ban Ki-moon, has been talking to senior government officials across the world as a head of the Carnegie Climate Regality Management Initiative, a non-profit organization based in New York. "Governments need to be involved in this debate and to understand those issues," said Pasztor. "They have to understand the dangers – not just the dangers of doing it, but also the dangers that they are not aware and ignorant."

There is no concern that governments could take one day to; affecting the effects of global warming and moving on with a solar geology program, something special because of it; The costs are cheap enough for many countries, and maybe even a few people to go alone. These earlier and earlier earlier this month arose in Quito, Ecuador, at the top of the Montreal Protocol, which governs chemicals that are in the process of managing the chemicals. spoil the ozone stratospheric cheese. Many countries requested a scientific assessment of the effects of sun geoengineering on the ozone layer, and on the wider stratosphere.

If the world is a great deal of getting about & # 39; geoengineering, Fahey says there are plenty of advanced tests that researchers may use satellites and flying planes. But for now, he says, SCoPEx is valuable – if it's only because it's going to & # 39; conversation on. "Not talking about geoengreering is the best mistake we do right now."

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