The Government has already selected: high levels to reach October with a nice dollar – 05/01/2019


"The level at which levels will lose the economy." The sentence, incorrect and honest, came from the mouth of a prime minister Mauricio Macri. This Friday, the day that Leliq's average cut closed at 59.28%. "Such representation is not possible".

On the other hand, that same officer – and even other ministers – admits that high levels reinforce the economy. They will not go out loud. It is a sentence. It does not only include for the economic team's engine room and will never be so public: "Today is a better macroeconomic of the year ago: we reduced the fiscal deficit , we have corrected the comparative prices and current census imbalance. What's lost? Allow Sandleris to go down"But will that be possible? According to economists it is still needed. Also within the Government.

The Central Bank knows about the problems and times at Power Executive. Sandleris has lunch with many of them. It was waspea. They are the only officer (or almost) officials who have been back for a year ago that their Central Bank (with Federico Sturzenegger) had a high level and that they were. value the exchange rate, which prevents the growth of the economy. Sandleris himself said that statement when he was in the Treasury Department.

"My vision is that the level of interest of two points per month must be over the next three months", the general manager told his / her; Central Bank Julio Piekarz. For this economist, Argentina's current economic model needs a lower level, not only due to the revival of activity ("they do not have a profound impact on the product"), but as a result SME funding, spending and "increase in real terms of State debt, which includes the Central Bank." The challenge, for Piekarz, is to " deal with the same one that was marked on Friday with her; Prime Minister of Macri ("reducing the interest rate") and at the same time exchange rate ("I do not like this dollar on the floor of the department without interference, it's falling behind; it should be between $ 40 and $ 40.5). All this, not to expect inflation.

But Piekarz recognizes that it is not easy. So, say that "Still missing for declining". Federico Furiase, EcoGo Economist, says that a reduction in rate must be made "it is essential that the inflation – reduction in inflation and the country threatens a new degree". The highest levels of rises rise that will emphasize inflation at the beginning of the year. "I do not see how much it will download as soon as a step by step," says Furiase. finished.

And in the meantime? What can a Central Bank do? Is not the level set by supply and demand? "Daily it has a room to mark the market that it will be lower and see how it re-responds," a & # 39; Piekarz answer.

The Government left the outer repression. At least public. Inside, they are inserted, they will & # 39; come into a "very hard" year. So they say almost President Mauricio Macri. This week's data that revealed the month-to-month business industry of 13.3% annually "also appears for the month of December", agrees. "Cancellation is cached in the first season numbers." Above, the expectations of 2019 (28.7%) inflation were increased according to the most up-to-date inspection of expectations and as a result most of the changes in transport, electricity and gas in the first half.

By submitting a bad repression it can bring bad adverse effects. And worse they are, longer Mac will investigate the economic management. His image fell in that case, that the checks should be worse, more would be done; suffer the investment and destruction. The depressed projections would be confirmed. The economic team prefers not to be over-optimistic in the face of the future. come. Especially in this context of dysfunction and inflation. Not even when in the last days the international markets gave relief to the stock exchange of developing countries and Argentina. A hundred percent per week allowed a rural danger due to the US economy. Decision? Give the minimum number of predictions and reach stable dollar until October. There will be some pressure. In the Government to get in: today a & # 39; losing the economy. "However, the Government has already chosen," says Piekarz, "between high levels and exchange rate permanence, they chose the first one for this year."

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