If a book builder needed to estimate the problems with an apocalyptic event more likely to abolish the human race, a discharge disease would be more likely than any nuclear attack, robot or asteroid. Epidemiologists and health professionals around the world agree: despite the efforts of governments and organizations to prepare for the worst, the world is not ready to show a fatal illness. In February 2017, Bill Gates warned that, if it was not done very quickly, there could be a pathogen that can be done. move away and move quickly "to kill more than 30 million people in less than a year."
Above all the threats of emerging diseases, is the flu of the disease; In most cases of flu, usually due to the discharge rate and the illness where it can kill. Recent research has been beyond any reasonable doubt that the Spanish flu was 1918, which killed 50 to 100 million people and earlier in human history, and # 39; come from birds. Today there are previously unexpected death rates, such as the H5N1 strain that appeared in Hong Kong in 1997, and appear more consistently than ever.
H7N9 is the main one of these new risks, a swine storm originally found in a Chinese chicken that currently has the Centers for Control and Disease Change (CDC). The greatest potential in causing pandemic pandemic is fatal to be lamented and broadcast by air. A virus was first detected in a person who died in 2013. The figures released last year have been published; shows that the most recent H7N9 killed, in October 2016, more people in China than the previous four years of influenza with and, created an unnecessary change to the vaccines.
Although it is clear who the main person is suspect, there is a problem when preparing for dealing with H7N9 on a global scale. As Dr. Keiji Fukuda, who was the leader of the CDC's industry, says humanity has "hit hit" in terms of pandemic disease in recent years. Through a mix of preparation, quick action and good luck, SARS in 2002, or swine flu in 2009, or Ebola in 2014 did not complete pandemic diseases. We do not have many related points in terms of giving signs or models on how world can be in the middle of dead-breaking and how we can, in a & # 39; Our community, prepare for the worst.
Irwin Redlener is the director of the National Center for Disaster Preparation at Columbia University. He and his team have over the last 14 years exploring accidents that cause climate change, terrorism or sick birds. Using data and computing modules, they have the different settings that may occur after they have been digitized; A new airflow has to live and lively and the results of these wildly models are read like zombie fiction.
In February 2017, Bill Gates warning However, if a big step is not taken rapidly, a patagane can quickly behave "more than 30 million people in less than a year"
We allow the virus, a variety of H7N9, to be found for the first time in a patient that has been exposed to your body alive in one of the Chinese chicken markets in China, where the rigor and the current management that & # 39; Many of Hong Kong's markets are still implemented. A week later, there are three other cases and the patient will die in hospital due to lung disease.
It is a laboratory run by the CDC in Atlanta who is the first one who is in the world. Examine a sample of blood taken from the victim. CDC viruses can confirm that they have found a fresh strain of bird flu. The Chinese government, with a knowledge of such a breakdown, orders the exclusion of bird markets and killing tens of thousands of birds in the land; province where the first issues were found.
However, after a few days, hospitals will receive a huge flow of new issues: it is clear that the nation's exact sacrifice or regulations for effective live behaviors. It is likely that this new virus can be spread between people through the air that we breathe.
Later days, new issues of disease in countries near China will be reported, although this is not clear at this time if the virus is spread by trucks that exceed the borders or birds that move through the winter.
To a large extent, the probationer expects, international airports will have a & # 39; Start closing in an effort to avoid interconnection interruption. Air travel, where exigrants from geographical regions have different levels of poor vulnerability in a closed space for a long time, the fastest way to travel at present.
Like the trenches and canvass infections in 1918, a plane works as a virus for virus and a virus; affecting passengers who are, apart and scattered, and # virus spread effectively. As Ed Yong said recently The Atlantic, when it comes to loose diseases, "overflowing the sky in several airplane, we will turn fires into global fires".
Closures to airports are & # 39; coming too late to stop the spread of her. In today's associated world, disease can be carried out from a rural town to any major city in 36 hours, faster than any government can implement a flight prevention policy . The first issues have been reported in Europe and, shortly after, in the USA. In the first few weeks there are many misunderstandings, as circulated in Ebola in 2014, when false statements spread the disease easier. In cable channels, some experts suggest that the result of non-cautious genetic research in China is; in error. Others suggest that it is part of a terrorist plot.
We do not have many points of detail to provide signals or models on how world can be in the center of contemporary dead-breaking and as we can, in society related , prepare for the worst
Their first schools are closed. "Redlener says one of the most important things that can be done in spread disease is to reduce disease among children," said Redlener. However, the action modules show that this redundancy is # 39; show the same number of problems it creates. "Who does care for children at home?" Environmental Summary "What happens if the parents get disease? And what will happen to the economy when parents can not work now? How do people buy food if they do not have their income?"
Supply chains start to & # 39; falls when the first local and regional economic impact of the pandemic occurs. "Who will deliver on our daily food and cure food and what we need if people are inserted in every place?" "Are we going to let trucks move between states if that does increase the risk of the explosion?"
In a few weeks, supermarket shelves are free. Gas stations have worms expanding the roads, at least in the few days when gasoline is still there.
The weakness of all well-suited equipment that promotes the everyday and contemporary life in the richest nations is open and slow. The global health emergency will move from "be on the list of non-personalities as the same work on the list of things to do for many people," said Bill Steiger, who was over the World Health Affairs Office during the administration of George W. Bush, Washington Post in April as long as he was preparing for pandemic.
Although the CDC publishes recommendations every day (staying home, clockwise if you are a cousin), President Trump has a "#; responding with a remarkable retoric. This time, however, a referee is going to even stronger steps. US borders with Canada and Mexico are terminated, military law agreement and Americans will send a quarantine sick (and placed in protected camps if they are found to have broken off their & # 39 ; exploration). Using public awareness of these urgent campaigns, Trump has a & # 39; start a war with China.
As the spread of the disease is continued, we Start to see that your countries can not respond. Hospitals, medical staff and medicines are tested using previous methods. "The United States has made little improvement in the ability to handle those affected by a pandemic disease," said Redlener. "We do not have enough anti-virus mechanisms, we do not have enough diagnostic aircrafts, it's very dangerous to know if people who need to have a hospital if there is a whole- spread and how we felt the patients were for that reason. "
This is where it appears to be so sad & a discharge disease situation: to consider the emerging ethical issues in the midst of an accident. What happens, for example, when hospitals run out of aviation? Can a doctor tell a parent, because their child's chances have survived less than those of a young adult, will the patient be saved? "There is only no guidance on how we should control the huge management we find in the health system if there is a pandemic," said Redlener.
Despite the admirable or complex settings of this wonderful situation, the probationer believes that the effects are; at any discharge disease outside the area of current affairs of many disaster designers. The models can show as soon as possible a world-wide travel can be able to travel, but they do not explain in detail what & # 39; The effect of falling on the & # 39; society in the midst of pandemic diseases. The whole world, saying "Redlener", "completely unplanned."
The probationer and his colleagues are not the only ones that come to these apocalyptic decisions. In 2011, the World Health Organization launched a global campaign called Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (PGP), a program designed to stop or delay it. fluid is discharged in original appearance and avoiding the type of global accident described above.
As part of the PGP, a network of over 150 laboratories around the world called the Glucose System and Response to Earth Flush will be subject to a flu of flu, and Examines blood samples from newly rescued patients and monitors the sale of medicinal products used. to deal with symptoms of illness. This study reports that a vaccine is created against a seasonal influenza, with new designs being developed twice a year and its; provides the basis for the advice of the World Health Organization for governments to help them prepare for pandemic.
Many countries have developed their own unique plans. The United Kingdom created, for example, the recognizable Air Disease Management Strategy, which establishes the procedures that should be followed if there appears to be a disease that can go to pervasive disease on the island. However, the World Health Organization is working to better co-ordinate efforts and strategies among the nations based on Spanish flu vaccine knowledge in 1918: you can not be pandemic with pandemic to & # 39; treating individual patients. They believe that today's discharged disease can not be achieved by doing so; treating the world in an interconnected way and not with separate nations.
"It's a global event in a discharged disease," said Sylvie Briand, director of Communications Risk Management Department as part of the recently created World Health Organization emergency program. "It needs to be managed nationally and internationally, there are no boundaries of diseases." Pardis Sabeti, a Harvard University infectious researcher, said the same The Atlantic at the beginning of the year: "Viruses are a global threat to humanity, they are a common problem, in a way, they are the only threat to come together."
Despite this, the type of risk of flu is different depending on the country from which it is. "The current problem is that his / her disease is seen as a disease of wealthy and tough countries," said Briand. "Not like that, the flu is everywhere, but in many tropical countries, where there is a high mortality rate from respiratory diseases, and most of the time they do not know it's because of its flu. "
In 2014, the Scottish Government promised to give one million dollars to a newly formed society called Health Health Agenda. The program is helped to help prevent the spread of people who are deadly by disabling them. Strengthening key public health systems in countries that are less advanced with the goal of anti-inflammatory disease. He has trained in an epidemiology for health professionals in Mali, for example, and has helped governments to develop emergency plans to deal with bird flu. Over 30 countries have taken part in their evaluations to verify their ability to find and write. ban breach (results, even negative results, are made public). But progress, "still weak" and "continuous funding," according to analysis within CDC.
At present, efforts to promote international cooperation are encouraging. However, we can not predict how nations would do if they asked each other's support in pandemic pandemic.
"When, for example, there is a huge storm on the shore in the north-east of the US or something like Katrina in the Kazakhstan region, usually help to come from major cities and other areas to the deterioration of the accident, "explained Redlener. In other words, those who are not affected will usually be affected; supporting those who are. "But a spread of disease threatens everyone, everywhere, that Boston can not get additional fans from New York, Washington or Chicago because they need at these towns on everything they have. " There are limited resources and, at all stages, from the community to their home and nation, it is inevitable that human beings are to be able to; look for themselves.
"There is a lot of work needed to ensure co-operation in crisis," says Briand. "The reason is for each country to collect a vaccine and achieve its own individual preparation plan, but we need to prepare a series of preparation to ensure that the first impact one has monopolized all resources. global event: the richest country will allow vaccines and not the rest. "
It is a part of the problem for anyone involved in this difficult situation that it is very difficult to expect problems. Vaccinating is the most effective way of protecting against pandemic disease. However, as Redlener said, there are gears and spatial wheels against the investigation, development, production and storage of vaccines (some of which will end in 12 months). "In a private system of production, development and research," he says, "medicine companies may not have the ability or partnership to invest money in something that does not happen and do not return them that they can not show."
At the same time, the World Health Organization's exhibitions continue to work to increase the pace of drugs being prepared with the hope that the time consumed will take place. New vaccine has been developed from 6 months to four. The speed of flu is broadcast basic: the death of 1918's flu, especially more people in 24 weeks of AIDS in 24 years.
Today, the World Health Organization has found 500 million amounts of flu sources, but it is likely that it will not be effective against a new flu of bird flu. These resources, saying Briand, will allow the world to face the first wave of pandemic discharged disease. But Redlener, on the other hand, has a strong and strong position; confirm that the resources will not be fully enough. "We do not have enough vaccines that can prevent a large discharge of influenza of any flu and less fatal discharge."
"The problem is, so far, that flu is seen as a disease of wealthy and tough countries, so it does not have a severe flu in all – but in many tropical countries, with high levels of death due to respiratory disease diseases, and most of the time they do not even know that it is the result of their infnosis big "
National and international policies play a vital role in creating new collaborative methods that are essential to tackle pandemic. However, as shown by the Arbitration and the increase in global rates on the world, this collaboration is based on the foundations of the world; increasingly unstable.
"Donald Trump has been very open about America First, which is back and unsuitable for almost every major problem facing the world: economy, public health, climate change, "said Redlener. Indeed, in his first few weeks in the office, Trump praised strict government cuts that work to stop a fatal breakdown at their well.
During the war in Ebola in 2014, Trump tweeted that American aid workers should not return to North America ("THIS IS THIS!", write), so that they did not spread the disease. It is an idea of thinking that Trump would be unhappy to help US submit to help break in other countries. "Our nation's division is only to increase the risk of pandemic," said Redlener.
For the World Health Organization, the need for international international cooperation is essential not only in the case of discharged disease, but also in drills and building protection for such an event. "The work needs to prepare an ongoing effort," said Briand. "The evaluations are only strong if you use them frequently, people change, the direction changes, so you need to do a exercise to ensure that the plan is correct and he is willing to deal with the unexpected. "
When can we expect another bird's flu to appear? All the interviewees interviewed for these articles said that not only is a significant spread of disease, but it's dangerous.
The World Health Organization is currently monitoring various animal influenza viruses, "according to Briand," who has a pandemic ". Among them is the H10N8 that has been detected again, An unidentified disease killed by the first person suffering in China for four years ago. Since then, the CDC has monitored over 300 breaches in 160 countries and He has found 37 dangerous routes throughout the year.
It is clear that we are not ready. How would we You can not match the fall of their societies. There are already problems with health systems around the world in meeting the needs of our population in terms of their growth and its ability. getting older, as well as addressing those who emerge after pandemic. At the same time, there is xenophobia and other national and interesting roles that oppose international politics and the necessary collaboration to prevent it. grow as a pandemic.
In his January's article, Bill Gates wrote that he is hopeful and, with little effort, humanity could not be the worst time. "Within ten years, we can be better prepared for a deadly disease if we are willing to spend a part of our spending budgets and new weapons systems for the disease."
But that's what the Reporter said, "is still going to appear." In order to appear, we will continue to & # 39; remain under the shadow of the birds flying through the blue sky.