February 11, 2019
The information was prepared by Dainis Gašpuitis, Macroeconomic Expert at AS SEB.
In January 2019, compared to January 2018, consumer price levels rose by 3%. Prices rise for 3% goods and for services with 3.2%. A & # 39; The biggest impact on the changes in consumer price levels increases in housing, alcohol and tobacco prices, soft food and drinks, restaurant and hotel services, recreation and culture, healthcare .
Despite favorable economic processes, 2018 was spent in low inflation. Looking at this year's vision for inflation, but only some of the economies that are experiencing; emerging, global inflation continues to decline. This means that external factors are less affected by inflation in Latvia and that larger factors are larger. After earning and working market conditions, this year we will, See more increase in services, such as housing, recreation, entertaining, and so on. This year, households expect to increase in tax taxes, as well as increasing the prices of electricity and heat. Questions are still about future oil price talents. In a SEB vision, its normal yearly price is $ 60-65 per barrel. Due to trade wars, a variety of diseases, as well as unintentional weather, expectations of food prices are uncertain. It is likely that we will do without great increases, but it is expected that there will be a slight increase in food in Latvian shops. Under these circumstances, entrepreneurs need to take a careful assessment of the potential increase in prices, as users keep track of their potential. Critically evaluating any price changes. Although the average salary keeps rising, the power of buying many organizations in society can not grow faster. This year, growth inflation will gradually increase to 2.9%, although the increase in public service prices will increase. adds to the rate of inflation rate.
World inflation is still low
Although oil prices have been consolidated and are likely to grow, the price of global price users in the world has been slowing down as price increases in the previous time to Starting to disappear from 12 month calculation. Therefore, inflation is lower than inflation (including resuscitation and food prices). Inflation has been relatively stable. Despite a relatively high use of resources, it is difficult for companies to save costs to consumers. Europe's disaster has also had a significant impact on price changes. Looking forward, it's a & # 39; An important issue when will the inflation be recovered? The answer is, when the low unemployment rate starts to & # 39; show higher salary increases. Total wage growth in the world's four developed countries has accelerated from 1.7% in spring 2017 to around 2.5%. This is still slow, since unemployment is currently lower than in 2007. From an inflation perspective, we must also be aware that productivity growth after Lehman Brothers crisis has declined significantly. If this move happens, future wage growth will be required in the future to reach 2% inflation. But because of the relatively good growth of the housing purchasing power and the company's employment, there is a reason to & # 39; think the national accounts are becoming more sustainable on productivity. Therefore, the weight on the cost of lightning costs in the unit cost form may be shorter. Due to this habitat and also the weak economic performance, weaknesses of glue remain constant over time.