Capital Economics estimates in London last week Brent's raw price decrease from $ 85 barrel in early October to less than $ 65 billion in oil and gas revenue on an annual basis, equivalent to 9 per cent of Total GDP.
The recent decline in oil prices "tends to continue", according to a report published by the Petroleum Economist, an oil expert in the UK. He even says Brent doubt will be $ 60 in 2019 and $ 55 by the end of 2020.
This downward trend, in the opinion of Capital Economics, will be. means that "economic recovery in the Falls will increase in mid-2019 and possibly even faster". In the long run, the current budget setting and current accounts in the Chamas will be; go down. "
Saudi Arabia is the biggest loss of the world's exporter of oil in the world, so the Camas department is an oil exports. The losses are in a ranking order in the UAE, then Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and finally Bahrain.
Another factor related to this loss is the extent to which states are & # 39; Chamais is responsible for their budgets for oil exports. Although it is a key factor in the budget of countries in Panama, it varies from one country to another. Therefore, the increase or decline related to oil exports to the overall Income income.
Oil income represents almost two thirds of income in the # 39; Saudi budget, where it was estimated at 492 billion guarantees this year, compared to 291 billion guarantees in non-oil income, accounting for 95% of income Abu Dhabi and 94 per cent of Kuwait budget revenue.
In Bahrain, oil income accounts for 78.3% of income to & # 39; budget. In Oman, oil accounts account for 70% of approximate income for the year. In Qatar, the 2011 budget of oil and gas budget prejudice to pay 76% of the total income.
The third factor is important in determining the extent to which oil prices affect economies; The price is expected in an oil barrel in the & # 39; their 2018 year, the cost of a barrel of oil from the perspective of each country, and its equilibrium price to countries that to achieve a balance between spending and income And not to go into crisis about the deficiency of its & budget.
Saudi Arabia has estimated the cost of oil barrel at a normal oil price between 57 and 58 dollar barrels in the budget, and you have to $ 70 barrel to achieve a target.
Kuwait likes to & # 39; price when counted at & # 39; budget at $ 50, and a $ 47.1 tariff price position per barrel, length & # 39; Catar was a $ 45 price cost of oil, with a cost of $ 47.2 per barrel.
The UAE has not announced oil budget prices for federal budget, but local reports show that there is an oil price in the 2018 $ 50 barrel budget and needs $ 61.7 barrel to balance its # 39 ; budget.
The Bahrain budget includes $ 55 per barrel with an average oil price, and the budget needs to be $ 95.2 per barrel to achieve equality, and Oman has a " Accepting the average cost of $ 50 oil in a barrel, and to pay money in income and expenses, the cost of $ 76.3 should be a barrel of oil in each barrel.
Lack of expectation
According to the "New Arab" enumeration, which accepts Saudi Arabia to; generating an average of 7.5 million barrels per day, it will produce about 219 million barrels per month with monthly income at $ 18.6 billion, and # 39; Accepting the price of $ 85 per barrel and $ 12.7 billion to & # 39; including $ 58 barrel price. It was estimated to have been estimated at around $ 6 billion in one month.
With the same rule applied to counting what was expected in the rest of countries; Camp exported oil export based on the number raised during the month increased with a barrel price of the largest $ 85. Expended and lower expectations $ 58 The following results are as follows:
Abu Dhabi generates an average of 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) and 72 million barrels per month with monthly income being considered at a & # 39; the tallest of $ 6.1 billion, at least US $ 4.1 billion and loss projections around US $ 2 billion.
Kuwait's export will reach around 2.06 million barrels per day and about 60 million barrels per month with monthly income at & # 39; maximum of $ 5.1 billion and at least $ 3.5 billion, with a basic loss of $ 1.6 billion.
Sultanate de Oman produces 770,000 barrels per day and 23 million barrels per month with a valuable income of up to $ 1.96 billion, at least $ 1.33 billion and a basic loss of $ 0.63 billion .
The Chata oil exports averages 484,000 barrels per day and 14.5 million barrels per month, with an income valued at $ 1.23 billion at a & # 39; at least, at a minimum of $ 841 million and a financial loss in a month of $ 389 million. About $ 1 billion).
Bahrain's estimated exports are about 152,000 barrels per day, or 4.5 million barrels per month, with an approximate income of approximately $ 387.6 million and at least $ 261 million.