China is at risk of a wave of International deficiencies



Experts warning that high lending costs and weak yuan may require many Chinese companies to pay international bonds that will end.

In the first ten months of this year, the international debt debt amount of US dollars (OCDB) was US $ 3.4 billion. Last year, this number is 0. In the next two years, they will predict that the number of decisions will be even larger.

So far, the ability to disaster emergency is very low. However, experts said that it is still necessary to closely monitor the prevention of distribution risk.

"I'm looking to see how these US loans are sorted out," said Tai Hui, a market engineer for the J.P. Asia-Pacific division. Morgan Asset Management said last week.

Hui added today's weight, he did not realize that there is a system risk. But, usually, financial problems usually start in a row, and then go to; spread. "I think the Chinese government needs to be very careful about these links," he said. In particular, the area's land estates need most attention.

In the report, Nomura estimates that the total value of Chinese corporate vans issued in US $ 751 billion dollars – doubled the end of 2015.

On average, from fourth IV / 2018 to the end of 2020, around $ 33.3 billion of contacts will grow every quarter, three times higher than the third quarter.

The number of OCDB products in China also rises in the fourth quarter, Nomura said. "We believe that, despite the decline in number of summer deposits, OCDB is under pressure due to domestic demand at risk , a credit risk rises, a reduction in the debate and the fairs that increase levels of interest. ", the report explained.

Chinese companies can give bands in yuan, or US dollars and other foreign funds. However, there are many dangers in foreign currency too without measurement to prevent exchange rate changes.

This year, NDT has lost more than 6% against the dollar. This will make Chinese businesses more difficult to pay back in USD. Some analysts have predicted that NDT will be weakened. NDT will help exports, but it will make companies more expensive when raw materials are consumed; introduced.

In the third quarter, China grew only 6.5 per cent – the lowest rate since early 2009. The economy is the second largest economy in the world. due to & # 39; growth model based on credit. This has caused China's debt to equal to 250% of GDP.

At the same time, the US economy is steadily growing, salaries are rising and unemployment rates are at the lowest 50 years.

In order to prevent the economy from relinquishing, the Periodic Reserve has promoted levels of interest several times over the last few years. However, this also caused linkages to be & # 39; falling and spread more than bits issued in a dollar.

Some Chinese companies have set up a new bench to get their money back. Evergrande Jane's Group, for example, last month, it provided a new bond of $ 1.8 billion, especially for debt related to a # 39; pay away from debt.

But Nomura said the need to buy new bands would make it more difficult for capital companies to build. Property acquisition companies may be particularly difficult.

This could continue to a small capital in-stream, a & # 39; emphasizing China's foreign exchange reservoirs and yuan. In addition, with domestic credit provision, the "pressures down the economy".

According to Vnexpress


Source link